999
FXUS62 KFFC 301818
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
218 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

At a glance:

    - Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
      afternoon

    - Warmer and drier tomorrow

A shortwave mid-level trough and associated (atrophying) surface
front are progged to sweep across the Southeast through very late
tonight. For areas along and north of I-85, thunderstorm chances are
likely to be negligible for the remainder of the day, as "new"
cumulus formation in the wake of morning rainfall has been slow and
sparse. Best chances to see an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon
are for areas east of a line extending from Columbus to Macon to
Athens, where most favorable overlap of meager (1000-1500 J/kg)
SBCAPE and lapse rates is located. Weak kinematics do not support
development of severe weather, but ponding on roads and gusty
winds are possible in any storms that form. Through the morning,
portions of north Georgia received as much as 9 tenths of an inch
(with locally higher amounts just over an inch) within the heavier
band of precipitation. For the remainder of the day, an
additional quarter to a half of an inch of rainfall is forecast,
as subsequent showers and storms will be patchier in coverage.
Highs today will be lower north of I-20, owing to increased cloud
cover and early coverage of showers and storms, topping out in the
upper-70s to near 80. To the south, expect temperatures to surge
into the low-to mid-80s.

Low-end chances for showers will linger until late tonight across
southeast central Georgia. Overnight lows will be relatively warm,
in the 50s to lower-60s. Fog development is likely in the wake of
precipitation for a few hours preceding and following daybreak on
Wednesday. Be cautious on the morning commute.

Expect clear and drier conditions tomorrow with surface high
pressure filling in behind the front. Highs tomorrow will be in the
80s areawide, and near-90 across our far southern tier.


96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and dry Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return late in the week
   into the weekend, with continued warm temperatures.

An upper level ridge will build over the area on Thursday, then
pivot SE on Friday. Thursday is expected to be dry across the area.
This is also expected to be the warmest day of the period, although
Friday will be nearly as warm. High temperatures both days will soar
well into the 80s away from the mountains, with some 90+ readings
possible, particularly S of Macon and Columbus. These highs will
will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

As the upper ridge shifts SE and weakens on Friday, a short wave
will moves NE across the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. The
combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist
air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
across much of the area (with the best chances across N and N
central GA). With the fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with
widespread organized thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High
temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Patchy lingering MVFR (and lower) obs will continue to lift to
SCT VFR for the remainder of the aftn. TSRA chcs too low for TAF
mention for northern TAF sites given weak cu in wake of AM precip,
but isolated SHRA is psbl thru 00Z. Winds briefly E at 6-8kts
will shift back W/NW by 20Z. AM IFR vsbys in FG/BR likely between
09-14Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  85  58  87 /  40   0   0  10
Atlanta         60  86  61  86 /  10   0   0  10
Blairsville     51  81  55  82 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    55  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        63  88  62  90 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     57  84  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           60  87  60  89 /  20  10  10  10
Rome            56  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  58  86  58  88 /  10   0   0  10
Vidalia         63  87  64  89 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...96