Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 230528 AAA
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
128 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
500mb analysis shows a low across east central MS. This low will
move southeastward tonight. A surface low is situated across
southwest AL. This feature will also move eastward overnight
dragging a cold front through early tomorrow. Lightning is
beginning to show up in SW AL this evening, near to the surface
low. The higher res models are doing ok with this activity and
show it lifting to the NE across the CWA overnight. Areas mainly
along the I-20 corridor and southward will have the potential for
isolated thunderstorms overnight. Have made some updates to the
pops to reflect current conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Key Messages:
- Widespread rain showers this evening will transition to
more scattered activity on Saturday.
- Expect rain totals of 0.75 to 1.50 inches through
Saturday morning.
Through Saturday Evening:
A shortwave trough and its associated surface low continue to
produce lift and widespread precipitation across Georgia this
afternoon. The majority of the precipitation was ongoing along and
north of a warm front draped across the central part of the
state. No lighting has been noted in central or northern Georgia
thus far today. With the 12Z HREF suggesting 250-750 J/kg of
MUCAPE in central Georgia tonight this trend could end with a
couple of isolated rumbles of thunder overnight. Severe weather is
not anticipated due to the anemic nature of the CAPE profiles.
Rain totals of 0.75 to 1.50 inches are expected by sunrise
Saturday.
A cold front will move into the region Saturday and push through
the region by Saturday evening. A couple of the CAMs have been
trying to develop a weak surface low along this boundary, and this
could (20% chance) help drive a couple isolated thunderstorms in
east central Georgia Saturday afternoon. In general though the
majority of the area should see a few morning showers and
gradually clearing skies as Saturday progresses. Though winds will
be breezy from the north on Saturday, any CAA looks modest. Thus
our high temperature forecast for Saturday ranges from the low 60s
in northwest Georgia to the lower 70s in east central Georgia.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Dry and sunnier weather returns for the latter half of the
weekend on Sunday amid ridging aloft and high pressure at the
surface. While high clouds will begin to increase on Monday, the
forecast will remain dry. High temperatures may be slightly cooler
as compared to Sunday as the transient CAD wedge is reinforced on
Monday.
Meanwhile, the next cold front will be progressing eastward
toward the area from Monday night into Tuesday as the associated
surface low lifts quickly from the Plains into the Great Lakes
region. PoPs will be on the increase from west to east on Tuesday
as the cold front pushes into the area. Surface CAPE still appears
limited, though sufficient in the presence of strong bulk shear
to maintain the inclusion of thunder in the forecast. The threat
for any stronger storms will be dependent on the degree of
destabilization during this time frame.
Beyond Tuesday, uncertainty still remains concerning how quickly
the front and associated precipitation will clear east of the
area. While model tendencies broadly support a drying trend by
Wednesday, chance PoPs still linger through Wednesday night,
especially for eastern portions of the area, to account for this
uncertainty. Temperatures will broadly remain near seasonal norms
through the coming week.
RW
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
IFR/LIFR conditions and -RA/DZ will persist through the remainder
of the overnight period at all TAF sites. A wind shift to NW is
expected over the next few hours (occurring between 09z and 11z at
ATL). Wind speeds will be relatively light (generally <5 kts)
until mid-morning, after which wind speeds will increase to 10-15
kts through the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kts. Conditions
will gradually improve through the morning and afternoon with
widespread MVFR by ~16z and VFR by ~20z.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 37 66 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 38 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 30 66 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 33 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 41 69 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 37 65 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 42 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 34 69 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 36 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 46 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Martin