Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291955
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





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