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000
FXUS63 KFGF 221825 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CONFINED REMAINING POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM FORMAN TO WAHPETON TO WADENA. LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ADJUSTED
SKY AND AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO 15 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. GIVEN
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DID INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKES COUNTRY...DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22-00
UTC. THE RAP HAS PERFORMED WELL IN REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SHIELD
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 14 UTC SOLUTION
FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP HAVE SCOURED OUT THE FOG
THAT WAS STARTING TO FORM OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO
REMOVED MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IA TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
STARTED TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTH HAS
CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AROUND CANDO AND LANGDON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND AROUND 60 WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP THE NORTHER TIER ALONG WITH
EASTERN COUNTIES GET DOWN TO BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND A BIT WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL START PICKING UP OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN/WI ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER MT CREATES A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING AND STAY A BIT WARMER WHILE THE EAST WILL AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRODUCING SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SFC BASED CAPE
STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR WEST.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BOUTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS LOW...SO CONTINUED TO CARRY
SOME POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY DRY HOURS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A TREND TO A MORE PREDOMINANT ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS/ECMWF 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS RISING
FROM MAINLY THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTH OF
KBJI AND KFAR WITH CLEARING TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18 UTC THURSDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG
THE PEMBINA RIVER...WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
MAINSTEM RED AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES
TO THE RED. THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EXCEPT FOR OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM ON THE TONGUE RIVER. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THE DAM SITE AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A
CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE.  ALSO...
OFFICIALS ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERAL RETENTION DAMS TO THE
WEST OF RENWICK DAM.

AT THIS TIME...OFFICIALS NOTE THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP OF THE
RENWICK DAM APPEARS TO BE STABLE AND WILL BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT REMAINS AND FAILURE WOULD MEAN MAJOR FLOODING
WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BH