Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Cold front dropping south thru nrn ND into nw MN causing scattered
storms as anticipated. Broad area instability with weak forcing,
thus multi-cells. This activity will decrease toward sunset and
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The main forecast challenge will be thunderstorm chances into
tonight. As of 230 pm a line of showers and thunderstorms extended
along the Canadian border and was moving ESE. Other storms had
fired around the KJMS area which were moving a little more SE.
The storms just to the north of the Canadian border have looked
severe at times, but as they have moved toward the border they
have weakened. Even so this line will bear watching late this
afternoon into the early evening as it moves further into the
northern FA. Will basically keep likely pcpn chances near this
boundary as it does move southward tonight. With loss of heating
by mid evening, the thunder component should begin to weaken, so
by midnight or after it should mainly be showers. Any pcpn should
be out of the southern FA by Thursday morning as sfc high pressure
builds in later in the day. Models differ a little on the strength
of the north winds Thu as the high builds in, some a little
stronger than others. Will keep with the idea of 10 to 15 or 10 to
20 mph thru the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Surface High pressure continues to push down across the fa from
central Manitoba through Thursday night and Friday... with the area
remaining under a dry northerly blayer flow. corresponding late week
temperatures should drop well below seasonal normals from Thursday
into Thursday night... and start to slowly climb back towards normal
during the coming holiday weekend.

Saturday into Monday... Though southerly return flow develops back
into the area from late Friday into Saturday... the 12z model suite
is a bit slower to develop deep convection into the Red River Basin
until late in the day on Saturday. The risk for widespread rain or
severe weather in the Northern Plains currently appears low for the
holiday weekend ...as models instead favor developing a frontal
boundary into the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley. This keeps low
level jet energy and any deep moisture surge blocked to the south.

There is still a risk for somewhat unsettled weather ...with
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the holiday weekend into
the early part of next week. Models transition from a fairly flat H5
flow across the Pac Northwest on the weekend... into a higher
amplitude west coast trof and central plains ridge into the next
week. With that... the increasing energy aloft could bring more
widespread rain and a risk for strong to severe storms by the
middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR thru the pd. Overall expect sct-bkn high based CU over the
area into the evening...in the 6-9k ft range. Overall going to
more of a scattered mid and high cloud regime later tonight into
Thursday. Winds turning north briefly gusty near storms and
outflows. Used VCTS for most TAF sites this evening as coverage
numerous enough to mention.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Riddle



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