Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 230349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 946 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Main change was to the snow event thu night/fri. WFO MPX wanted to
update based on the 00z nam going south and thus feeling that MPX
nw fcst area is now not likely to get much if any snow. Thus
updated our southeastern fcst area to remove pops and snow for thu
night/fri period.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over southeast ND with a
jet on the south side or over SD. Visible satellite loop
indicated clearing over north central ND. So expect some clearing
overnight mainly northern valley. Radar indicated rain and snow
over the southern zones mainly south of a line from Kelliher MN to
Valley City ND. Precip was moving to the east southeast at 15 to
20 knots. Precip should move out of the area this evening.
Precipitable water decreases overnight. Little change to temps
for tonight and Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

On Thursday night through Friday, a strong Colorado Low brings heavy
snow across the Central Plains. Fortunately, a majority of the
operational models agree that this system will bring less than an
inch of snow, if any, across the far southern Red River Valley and
adjacent portions of west central Minnesota. If any snow showers do
develop, gusty north winds will likely reduce visibility in these
areas. Additionally, with temperatures falling through Saturday,
gusty north winds will bring wind chills as low as the single digits
below zero on both Friday and Saturday mornings. Temperatures will
bottom out Saturday morning with lows in the single digits to middle

Over the weekend, temperatures will be near normal values for
February with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. With a few shortwave
disturbances passing through aloft, could see some light snow
showers or flurries throughout the weekend, but little impact is

Looking into the middle of next week, several models indicate strong
Colorado Low moving through the Plains. While confidence is low in
this system`s track at this time, blended model guidance does
indicate better chances of measurable precipitation over the
forecast area so will stick with this for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Drier airmass moving south with the north wind tonight into
Thursday will lead to a mainly VFR cloud deck in the nrn RRV and
NW MN. How far west and south this drier air advances and clears
out the MVFR cigs is questionable, thus Fargo, DVL may remain in
some MVFR cigs into Thursday. Fog chances look low attm....not
zero...but low so will not mention.




AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.