Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 300829
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS/SMOKE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON


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