Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.


FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ALL SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS NOW AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CLOUD TRENDS OR ANY FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TAF TREND OF SOME SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS A CLEARING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE BUT
THEN STALLS AFTER DARK. HAVE POSTPONED THE SCATTERING OUT BY A FEW
MORE HOURS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD TRENDS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ADDING ANY FOG
AT THIS POINT EITHER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON





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