Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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115
FXUS63 KFGF 281955
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Forecast challenges will be pcpn chances late tonight into
tomorrow.

Shortwave over sw Sask will propagate ese tonight. Model guidance
consistent in pcpn reaching the MN/international border area
between 09-12z. Showalter indices around zero and lightning
strikes upstream with feature all day so cannot rule out thunder.
Warm advection overnight should hold temperatures up.

Front enters the NW during the am roughly bisecting the fa from
NE-SW by evening. Sufficient cape/instability to maintain
thunder. Cam guidance more spotty with any development in the
afternoon so kept pops in chance ranges. Temperatures will hinge
on degree of solar but should be able to approach seasonal
averages based on thermal profiles even with partial solar.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Still looks like a cold front will drop from north to south across
the FA Wednesday night. This front looks fairly weak and the main
upper support lags well behind the sfc front. Will keep pcpn in the
chance range for now, but overall a fairly weak signal. Any pcpn
looks to move south and east of the FA by 18z Thu with high pressure
moving back in. The high should be right over the top of the FA Thu
night with clear skies and light winds. Morning low temps look to be
on the cool side again. The high will slowly track SE on Friday, but
will still give one more day of dry weather.

More of a zonal flow regime sets up by the upcoming holiday weekend.
This looks to bring a return to periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances, with the first chances arriving Friday night into Saturday.
After this the models begin to differ quite a bit, actually becoming
nearly totally out of phase with each by 12z Tue. Guidance keeps
pcpn chances for nearly the entire weekend and into early next week.
Therefore it will sound like a holiday weekend washout, but like
typical summer time weather there will be dry periods too. With the
pcpn chances come a fair amount of clouds, which could tend to hold
down daily highs a bit.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR conditions through the period with generally light winds.
Possible pcpn skirting international border late tonight not to
affect any TAF sites.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Voelker



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