Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Slow moving vort max will be over fargo at 09z and then continue
to move east thru wed morning. Slow moving showers and a few
t-storms will continue over southeastern ND into west central MN
tonight with emphasis slowly shifting east and southeast over time
into early Wednesday. With loss of daytime heating and not that
much of a low level jet thinking trend overnight will be for
general showers with a few t-storms with heavy rain.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Main forecast challenge will be convective chances tonight into
Wednesday. As of mid afternoon, there were a few showers and tstms
across the area, but the main area appears to be working into the
SW FA. One thunderstorm cell near Valley City produced a funnel
cloud that appears to have briefly touched down. This cell was
nearly completely gone after a couple of volume scans. Now the
strongest cell appears to be just southeast of Bottineau moving
SE. As far as severe potential, just not looking that favorable.

In the area where the funnel cloud report was, there is a weak
boundary, but it has been cloudy all day. Along and north of
highway 200, it has been more sunny with some CAPE. However, shear
is very weak across the FA. Therefore an isolated severe storm is
possible, but it will generally be weaker convection overall. SPC
day 1 convective outlook keeps a marginal risk basically along and
south of Interstate 94, which looks fine. Some short wave activity
moving along the near zonal flow will keep some chances for
additional pcpn along and south of Interstate 94 into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Thursday through Friday night will see relatively quiet weather with
weak 500mb nw flow...10 to 20 kts with SFC high pressure centered
across the northern plains. Seasonal temperatures are expected with
highs around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday to Tuesday will have an increasing chances for convection
as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly allowing PWats to rise...adding
instability. Chances will be associated with any wave although
timing remains uncertain. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
near 90 with lows in the mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR with light winds into Wednesday morning. Scattering of showers
Fargo area thru the overnight as well as near GFK and BJI. Cloud
bases VFR with the exception of isolated areas of MVFR cigs.
North wind 5 to 15 kts on Wednesday behind this system with a good
deal of sun and scattered mid or high clouds.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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