Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 012025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG



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