Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 190446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

No changes. Scattered cirrus over the area with a south wind 5 to
15 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Another quiet evening across the Northern Plains with a steady
return flow south wind on the backside of the departing high
pressure. Challenge will be low temps and then the possibility of
a slight chc for shower thursday afternoon in the southern
valley. Models do show some increasing instability although
moisture fields too moist this afternoon so thinking models are
overdoing the instability for tomorrow. Nonetheless will add the
20 POP for the afternoon period in the southern valley. Max temps
will be another couple degrees higher tomorrow with the warmer
start due to the aforementioned steady south winds overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Friday into Saturday...
Airmass continues to saturate on Friday with south winds bringing
Central Plains moisture northwards. Pwats are expected to climb to
around an inch by Saturday as the southerly winds continue. Temps
Saturday similar to Friday.

Saturday Night-Wednesday...
The upper level ridge over the central US will shift eastward on
Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough and associated surface boundary
that will migrate through the area on Sunday Night into Monday. Very
warm temps up near or above 80 are expected over parts of the region
on Sunday, along with increasing low-level moisture and gusty south
winds. The threat for showers and storms will increase by late
Sunday into Monday as the upper shortwave and surface boundary move
through. The intensity of any storms will likely be influenced by
the degree of moisture return as well as the timing of the
boundary/upper wave across the region (ECMWF slower).

Heading into early next week a west to southwest upper air pattern
will persist, with temps near or above average. Currently confidence
in precip chances beyond Monday is low, but some potential does
exist given the overall synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Didnt make any changes from the prev 00z set of tafs. Some
scattered cirrus with south-southeast wind 5 to 15 kts overnight
through mid morning Thursday then south-southeast winds increasing
to 15 to 25 kts in the RRV Thursday afternoon. Kept in some mid
clouds developing Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle



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