Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290324
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IS ON TRACK TO VERIFY...AND NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECASTED WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WINDS SHOULD BE AOB 3 KNOTS MOST AREAS DUE TO MORE
TREES (OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT MAY INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
THAN WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL ACTUALLY FEEL).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

01Z OBSERVED TEMPERATURE VALUES COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...AND
APPLYING THE BIAS OF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE VALUES TO MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWERING THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST. UPSTREAM
VALUES UNDER THE CURRENT AIRMASS WHERE -15F TO -25F...AND
ANTICIPATE SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FA (THE SOUTHERN FA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY HOLD UP VALUES). THIS BRINGS SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO AROUND -40F...BUT
ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AREA MAY ALSO BE WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
THIS REGION MORE HEAVILY FORESTED WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN WIND
SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA IF NECESSARY.
DID EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
(WAHPTON) AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 5 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WITH
THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH WIND...EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 BELOW IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
TO 25 BELOW IN LAKES COUNTRY. THE LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY STARTS OFF COLD WITH
BITTER WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION. RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW...THURSDAY THEN AGAIN FRI INTO SAT. THE FRIDAY SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NEITHER EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP FOR THU/FRI...WITH MORE COLD AIR
DROPPING INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CLEAR SKY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
     052-053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ003-029.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-
     005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG






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