Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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287
FXUS63 KFGF 261658
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Increased the winds a bit and issued a Special Weather Statement
to address the winds pushing up near Advisory criteria across portions
of the Devils Lake and Red River Basin. Low pressure system now in
northwest Ontario has pushed a secondary frontal boundary down
through the northern two-thirds of FA... coincident with the sct-
bkn low cloud deck.

UPDATE Issued at 921 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

As of 915 am CDT... the MVFR cloud deck has rolled down to an
INL-TVF-GFK-CRT line with areas of slightly lower cigs and light
rain showing just north of the CANAM border. Some southward
progressionof the clouds is still expected through midday...with
temps holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The F-M area and
Central MN Lakes should stay in the somewhat warmer and sunnier
zones. No sig changes planned to the fcst package this am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Winds and how much precip we get in the north today will be the
main forecast concerns for the short term.

The upper low currently over eastern Manitoba will move into
Ontario today, leaving west to northwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains. Surface low pressure to the northeast will keep
the area under a fairly tight gradient, and winds today will again
be a concern. 925 and 850mb winds are currently around 40 kts, but
will drop down a bit later today into the 30 to 35 kt range. Cold
air advection will help enhance afternoon mixing. Will keep winds
on the higher end, but below advisory criteria with speeds around
25 kt sustained and gusts around 30 to 35 kts.

As the upper low rotates, there should be some decent mid level
moisture coming around the backside of the system. Current rain is
staying north of the international border, but with the cool air
aloft convective redevelopment further south is possible, which
fits high res models for this afternoon. Bumped up POPs a bit to
the 30-50 percent range with some parts of the northeast getting
close to likely POPs as they have a better shot of seeing the more
widespread wrap around precip. With some sub 500 J/kg of CAPE some
thunder is not out of the question so included an isolated mention
for this afternoon.

With the clouds and precip highs in the north will be close to the
70 mark, but the sunny south should see highs in the low 80s.
Tonight, a few showers could linger in the northeast as the system
pulls slowly away, but otherwise it should be drying out and winds
diminishing as high pressure builds into the area. Lows should
drop down into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Monday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft should keep
things fairly quiet, although some of the models have a weak
shortwave approaching Tuesday night which could bring a chance for
precip. For now keep a blend with some low POPs in the north.
Temps will be fairly cool Monday with highs in the 60s to low 70s,
and with the surface high overhead Monday night some readings
could see 40s. Temps should recover a bit by Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Long wave pattern deamplifies a bit
through the period. long wave ridge over the western North America
weakens a bit while long wave trough over the western Great Lakes
amplifies a bit and shifts a little east. Short wave trough is
expected to move through Thu with the ECMWF being a slightly
faster solution. Will blend the ECMWF and the GFS.

Little change to high temperatures for Wed and Sat. High temps
decreased a decreased a degree or two for Thu and Fri from
yesterdays forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expect areas of MVFR to low VFR ceilings north of the I-94
corridor through late afternoon... with lowest cigs along and
north of the Hwy 2 corridor. Expect strong westerly winds at
25G40 kts through this same area. Cigs and winds should diminish
through northeast ND through mid afternoon and through northwest
MN in the late afternoon as the low pressure system shifts
eastward and pressure gradients begin to relax. Expect continued
decrease in clouds and winds through the evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...Gust



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