Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 251000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Snow is winding down as visibilities are improving. Did receive a
report of near 6 inches of snow near Blackduck, so the heavier
snowfall within the deformation zone snow band did accumulate into
the advisory range at least. Snow is winding down so will stick
with the advisory. The region remains in cyclonic upper flow
today with clouds remaining for much of the day (although some
clear sky also expected). Westerly flow/warm front will approach
and move through the region today and temperatures should climb
into the 20s or low 30s. The main impact today will be the
westerly winds and drifting snow. 925mb winds will be 25-30 knots,
with decent mixing anticipate surface winds will be 20-25 mph with
gusts to just over 30 mph. Canadian blowing snow model suggests
these speeds not enough to produce significant visibility
reduction, but likely enough for at least drifting snow with some
blowing. As temperatures approach 30 degrees, drifting snow may
cause some travel issues with a melt/freeze scenario. Tonight
should be a relatively mild night with the region in the warm
sector of a Canadian system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Monday-Tuesday...Relatively zonal flow is forecast across the
area this period. Short wavelength upper ridge over ID will move
east of the forecast area Mon morning. Next short wave moving onto
the BC coast will move into the Northern Plains on Mon. System is
only expected to produce clouds across parts of the area.
Precipitation is expected to stay north of the International
border.

Tuesday-Saturday...Longwave pattern relaxes through the period.
Longwave trough over western North America retrogrades a bit off
the west coast and weakens while the north portion over northern
Canada shifts to the other hemisphere by the end of the period.
Longwave ridge is forecast to build off the northeast coast of
Canada. Would expect some moderation in temps. However main jet
remains south of the area.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF through the period.
Next short wave is expected Wed night and again is only expected to
produce clouds. The next system is forecast for about Sat.

Little change to high temperatures Wed through Fri. High temps lower
a degree for Sat from yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Conditions continue to slowly improve for all TAFs except KBJI.
Will continue the light snow until about 09-10z, and then it
should be about done. Ceilings will be a tough call. There are
more MVFR ceilings back west and southwest of KDVL that may brush
KGFK/KTVF/KBJI into the morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to
increase through the morning, becoming a little gusty by mid to
late morning through the afternoon. This will cause some blowing
and drifting snow in open areas, but not sure yet if it will be
enough to cause vsby restrictions at any of the TAF sites. These
winds should begin to decrease by late afternoon into the early
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ005-
     006-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Godon



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