Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 310248
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST...GIVEN IT IS ALREADY 19 IN WALHALLA AND CANDO. EXPECT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS PERHAPS GETTING
DOWN TO NEAR 10 ABOVE LOCALLY IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...A COLD
NIGHT FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20.

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY.

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC ALL AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






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