Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251736
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Rain has pretty much ended across the far east and with upstream
rain band well to the south and east cut pops for the remainder of
the afternoon. Any sun unlikely with moist layer and low
convective temperatures so not much recovery in temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

No changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Adjusted POPs for the rain showers skirting our far southeastern
counties. This light activity will continue for the next few hours
as a weak shortwave lifts through MN. Included a mention of patchy
fog in the eastern CWA as several sites are approaching 1SM, but
at this point do not think we will see anything really dense.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Drizzle this morning and the next round of rainfall will be the
main issue for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft continues, although with the upper trough
axis shifting eastward into WY, the best moisture plume is also a
bit further to the east than last night. With rich low level
moisture in the boundary layer and some weak lift, there has been
some areas of drizzle going across the area. Will continue to keep
a mention of patchy drizzle from the Red River Valley eastward,
with some more substantial rain showers clipping our far
southeast during the early morning hours. Best chances of
significant rain will remain over the west central MN counties
through today, while the rest of the CWA is cloudy and cool with
highs in the 50s.

The chances for rain will increase overnight tonight as the main
upper trough starts to pull into the western Plains. With the
track of the surface low into MN/WI, the best deformation zone
precip will be over our eastern counties, so have POPs likely to
categorical after midnight across west central MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper trough moves into the region on
Tuesday, bringing plenty of synoptic lift and a broad area of rain
mostly to our eastern counties. Behind that system, flow aloft turns
northwesterly and there will be a drying trend although a weak
shortwave could bring a few showers to our far north Wednesday
night. Temps will remain cool for Tuesday but start to recover
into the 60s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Good chance for showers coming during
the day on Thu as short wave and associated cold front rotates
through this flow. GFS has a defined upper low while ECMWF
maintains northwest flow without much of a short wave. Fri will be
dry as flow from the north brings Manitoba/Western Ontario sfc
high to the northern plains. Return to southerly flow may be
quicker Fri night/Sat lowering frost potential. Stout southerly
winds likely by Sat afternoon ahead of approaching cold front for
Sun.

Temps will hover in the average 60-65 range late week before
increasing a few degrees for the weekend. Overnight lows should
remain at or above 40 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Current IFR/MVFR cigs may rise a category this afternoon however
that will be about it. As upper low lifts northeast across the
forecast area late tonight into Tuesday -ra should start backing
back into the fa from the east. Best potential for this will be at
BJI and maybe FAR. Elsewhere confidence too low for any pcpn
mention.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB/AM
AVIATION...Voelker



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