Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Issued at 952 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends, which show two bands of
rain over the southern and eastern counties. These bands will
continue to push eastward through the rest of the morning, with
most short range models showing the rain exiting the area around
19Z or so.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Very interesting night. Temperatures across most of the FA are
still holding in the 40s, although a few spots in the northern Red
River Valley are in the mid 30s. Normal highs for late November
are around 30. Meanwhile, the radar shows echoes that look
convective in nature. So not your typical late November night.
Winds have shifted to the northwest over north central ND, with
the sfc low up around the Lake of the Woods region. This low will
continue to track eastward this morning, with the pressure
gradient tightening behind it.

Cold advection will spread through the FA as well, so expect
increasing west northwest winds by mid to late morning through the
afternoon. Thinking the wind speeds will stay below wind advisory
criteria. Getting a few stations reporting some light rain
already, but this also looks to come through in a rather
disorganized fashion. Have kept with the idea of rainfall amounts
less than a tenth of an inch. Kept the pcpn type as rain. Tonight
will be cooler and wind speeds will decrease. The coldest 850mb
temps drop into the northeast FA by 06z Saturday, right over the
Lake of the Woods region. Considered adding some flurries or very
light snow downstream of the lake, but not sure enough of the
lake is open to result in lake effect snow. For that reason kept
a dry forecast tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Weather impacts for the rest of the holiday weekend and the end of
November across the northern plains appear to be relatively minimal.
Split flow aloft across North America will keep the northern plains
primarily dry with only slight chances possible for rain Monday and
snow Wednesday night. The split flow will bring predominately
Pacific air to area with temperatures generally above the normals
for the end of the November. Highs are expected to be in the 30s
north and 40s south with lows in the 20s for the weekend and into
the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

May see ceilings drop into the 4000 to 6000 foot range for a
while as the rain moves through, but really do not expect them to
get any lower. The rain remains very light and should not restrict
the vsby at any time either. Wind speeds continue to look lower
than they did with prior model runs.




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