Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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627
FXUS63 KFGF 090101
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough extending from the
central MAN/SASK border into eastern ND. Tweaked pops and winds for
tonight. No other changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main impacts/challenges through the short term will be
temperatures and wind chill potential overnight into Friday
morning.

Actually, global models handling current shsn area better than
the high resolution models which are generally dry. As weak mid
level short wave shifts eastward overnight any lingering -sn
should shift east of the Red River which current radar trends
indicating. Kept higher chance pops going east of the river
through mid evening and later shifts can adjust if necessary.

Once we get substantial snow cover temperatures are always a
challenge and highly dependent on cloud cover. Clearing spreading
slowly east through the western forecast area however guidance
stalls out clearing before reaching the valley region. Cold
advection continues overnight and with winds diminishing,fresh
snow, and some degree of clearing, the western forecast area will
cool down the most. There will be just enough wind that if skies
remain clear wind chill criteria will be met and will issue a wind
chill advisory for this area. Farther east clouds and mixing will
hold temperatures up.

Surface high pressure will continue to build slowly east through
the day so winds should be lighter. Cold advection levels off
however with cold column in place and colder start temperatures
will show minimal recovery in the single digits above and below
average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main forecast concern Friday night will be how cold the overnight
lows will be. If skies completely clear, look for temperatures to be
around the low 20s below zero. However, right now some clouds
lingering are not out of the question, so kept lows around the mid
teens below zero. Next area of concern is the system coming through
midday Saturday through Sunday. The global models have the main
swath of snow brushing the southern CWA with a few inches. The NAM
has a further north solution, but that seems to be an outlier right
now. We will lean towards the southern solutions for now, but will
continue to monitor. Looking to early next week, a secondary trough
will bring more cold air to the region. Temperatures will remain
well below seasonal averages throughout the extended period.
Wednesday and Thursday look fairly quiet with northwest flow aloft,
but still cold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

An area of MVFR conditions extended from northeast ND to west
central MN. Some IFR conditions were embedded within the MVFR area.
Expect MVFR area to slowly shift into northwest MN by morning.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected by late Fri afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes



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