Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161953
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Will keep monitoring day to day fire weather concerns, mainly
  across the southern half of the FA, especially Monday.

- There is a 30 percent chance of minor winter impacts due to
  accumulating snow on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Wind speeds continue to remain near advisory levels this
afternoon. As expected, the strongest winds have been right up
and down the Red River Valley. However, have not seen consistent
advisory level winds hold, they have been bouncing up and down.
The gusts should drop off again after dark, but the sustained
winds will hold up tonight. The previous shift added in pretty
much a FA wide slight chance of light snow through the late
afternoon through the evening. The main drivers looks to be the
upper jet and vorticity around the 500mb low over southern
Ontario. Hard to say whether this may be flurries rather than
light snow. Upstream observations have been showing both, so
will leave the light snow as is. Really not anticipating any
accumulations, so pretty low impact either way.

High pressure will be pushing into the FA on Sunday, but it may
not really arrive until late afternoon into the evening.
Therefore for most of the day it will remain windy and brisk.
Think the day will start mostly cloudy, with some decrease in
clouds possible by mid to late afternoon. Pretty chilly highs on
Sunday should limit any fire weather issues in this FA.

A shortwave passing north and east of the forecast area on Monday
will position the region within warm air advection. This will usher
in warmer temperatures, especially across eastern North Dakota.
Gusty southwesterly winds through the afternoon will elevate fire
weather concerns. There are some limiting factors, such as moisture
return allowing RH values to stay elevated, especially in ND where
the strongest winds will reside. However, due to the dry fuels in
place, it bears watching. Breezy conditions will persist into
Tuesday as the cold front associated with the shortwave propagates
through. However, higher relative humidity values on Tuesday should
limit fire weather concerns. Lighter winds and even cooler
temperatures are expected on Wednesday, but lower RH values keep
fire concerns in the forecast. Overall, fire weather will need to be
monitored through the first half of next week.

Beyond that, a shortwave passing through on Thursday will be the
next period of interest. Ensembles continue to struggle with this
wave. Mesoscale features will be crucial in determining the degree
and location of impacts, which reduces confidence at this lead time.
Ensembles are split into two camps as to where the axis of heaviest
snow sets up. About 60% place the band across southeastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. The other 40% put it further
north, generally along or just south of Highway 2. The lack of a
strong push of cold air advection on the backside should limit
winds, and therefore blowing snow potential.

Uncertainty only increases towards the weekend. A wave over the
Pacific Northwest will interact with another wave dropping south out
of Canada, forming a low in the lee of the Rockies on Saturday.
Embedded in west to southwesterly flow, it will propagate into the
upper midwest, traversing through the region starting late Saturday.
Due to the poor handling of wave interactions models are known to
have, there is little predictability in the track of this wave or
the potential impacts it may bring. This uncertainty is reflected
well in the potential of minor impacts from PWSSI, at about 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Wind speeds will remain fairly consistently through the rest of
the afternoon, before decreasing slightly overnight. It remains
cloudy to the east of the Red River Valley, and is starting to
cloud up again to the west. All areas will become cloudy again
by mid to late afternoon. There could also be some flurries
around, but did not mention them due to their spotty nature.
Cloud heights should remain in the BKN-OVC025-040 range for the
most part throughout.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon/Rafferty
AVIATION...Godon


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