000
FXUS63 KFGF 200446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON POP TRENDS. AREA OF SHOWERS/WEAK
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. ALSO
RAIN SHOWERS MOVED MORE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY THEN EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND ADDED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TO RANSOM/SARGENT/RICHLAND COUNTIES. MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH.  BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND.  ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN.  GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN.  NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR NORTH. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 06Z...REACHING GFK BY 09Z. SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AND
EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS
DURING THE DAY AT MOST SITES. GFK...TVF AND ESPECIALY DVL WILL SEE
WINDY CONDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT DVL AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER POINTS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS WITHIN THE REGION HAVE
RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE IT FALLS COULD CAUSE AREA
RIVERS TO RISE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN
THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL RUNOFF. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FUTURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. THE FORECASTS GIVEN FOR EACH
RIVER POINT ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST PROBABLE SITUATION. RIVER POINT
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WATCH (FFAFGF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...TG