Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 091551
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Still seeing some snow flurries in the area and kept them in until
21Z. Main chance for snow flurries in northwest Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Impacts minimal with flurries the main concern. Latest satellite
imagery indicates cloud cover extending well north into Canada.
Weak low pressure will propagate southeast to near Baudette by
mid-evening. This system is weak, and strongest forcing is expected
to remain northeast of the region. With that said, latest radar
imagery and observations indicate flurries across the region, and
upstream. There are likely multiple weak upper waves within
northerly flow aloft, and as long as lower level clouds remain
expect the chance for flurries to continue. Given the expected
track of this system, there is the potential for brief clearing
this afternoon/evening, and steady temperatures overnight with the
region in the `warm sector`.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Sunday...Next clipper system will affect the region later Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours. This system appears stronger,
with the potential for a brief period of mesoscale forcing
(locally higher snowfall amounts). Confidence is high that snow
will occur, but confidence is low with the location of this
snowfall, and especially the location of locally higher amounts.
Stronger winds also expected, but likely west of where the snow
accumulates. If the strongest winds do not occur where fresh snow
falls, the current snowpack is likely not very blowable with
recent warmer temperatures. Thus, main impact will be snow
amounts, and current indications suggest 1-3 inches east of the
valley, with a low risk for higher amounts.

Monday-Friday...Active northwest flow will keep the clipper train
rolling with precipitation chances elevated mainly in the form of
light snow along with periods of gusty north/northwest winds
through late next week.

Snow associated with the clipper moving southward east of the region
will taper off through the morning Monday with some light snow
showers or flurries lingering through the day Monday, especially in
Minnesota. Gusty winds west of the clipper`s center could create
areas of blowing and drifting of snow should they collocate
themselves with areas of freshly fallen snow or continuing snowfall.
As of now highest winds gusting into the lower to mid 30s mph should
stay west of and within the Red River Valley away from the area
expected to see higher snow amounts, although some overlap may exist
in an area east of the Red River to west of the tree line within
Minnesota. This is where the chance of blowing and drifting of snow
looks to reside as it will require freshly fallen snow with current
snowpack expected to be crusted over. Winds will relax late Monday
as a high pressure settles over the region.

The next clipper to stroll out of Canada and impact the region
appears to be mid next week. This will again increase precipitation
chances mainly in the form of light snow while elevating winds.
Model guidance starts to diverge with timing and development of this
clipper along with the subsequent series of weak mid to upper level
impulses. While confidence of snowfall amount and timing are low
beyond Wednesday, at least some continued periods of light snow does
seem reasonable through Thursday.

There are indications of a pattern shift late next week as guidance
is suggesting the persistent ridge currently over western North
America breaks down into more of a zonal flow with embedded impulses
of energy and moisture. This should continue elevated precipitation
chances.

Temperatures largely swing from slightly above to near normal with
normal highs being in the mid to lower 20s and normal lows in the
mid to upper single digits above zero. The higher chance of clouds
lingering for an extended period of time along with coldest air
aloft remaining to the east should inhibit maximum radiational
cooling during overnights. Colder temperatures within the forecast
range will reside in the Minnesota side of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions expected to transition to mainly
VFR conditions by mid-morning. Confidence is fairly high in this
scenario as winds will switch from northerly to southwesterly.
Winds will switch back to northerly tonight, with lowering cigs
again possible.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/CJ
AVIATION...TG



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