Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.