Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1107 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Wind chills advisories have expired. Increasing south winds and
sub-zero temperatures will keep conditions a bit chilly through
the day. An updated Aviation Discussion is attached below.

UPDATE Issued at 941 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Pulled a few west-central MN out of the Wind Chill Advisory a bit
early as temperatures were already showing some slight rebound.
Rest should expire as currently planned around 11 am. No
other significant updates expected through this forenoon.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Cold pocket from yesterday morning has shifted east. Temps
and dewpoints near the surface are not quite as cold as
yesterday. Winds were light across the area. So replaced
the wind chill warning with a wind chill advisory the the
Red River Valley and east. Will leave the wind chill warning
in effect for the Devils Lake basin and the far western zones
for the morning. Wind chill advisory elsewhere.

Surface high pressure over the eastern Dakotas will move to
the Ohio River Valley by 12Z Sun. Return flow will begin
this afternoon and tonight. Precipitable water rises a bit
for Sat night.

Upper level jet will nose into the area from the northwest late
Sat night. Upper level divergence on the left exit region is
expected to produce light snow in the Lake of the Woods county
area late Sat night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Weather impacts for the extended will be clipper system Sunday and
the arctic blast that follows in its wake. The arctic airmass is
expected through mid week then push off to the east with
temperatures rising to above normal levels by the end of the work

Sunday morning will see some light snow across the area with the
highest chances in NW MN with 850mb WAA and 500mb Potential
Vorticity Advection as developing clipper system pushes southeast
across the area. in the wake of the arctic push late Sunday
morning and into the afternoon winds will be mixing efficiently to
near 900mb with bufkit soundings indicating around 30kts or so to
mix. These winds will be strong enough to cause some drifting and
possibly some blowing snow especially across the northern half of
the Red River Valley and E ND where the deeper and fresher snow
pack lies.

Monday and Tuesday will see the influence of 1050mb plus arctic high
pressure settling over the northern plains. Reanalysis data shows
this to be 3 standard deviations above normal and having a return
interval from 10 possibly 30 years for portions of the FA. Meaning
temperatures will be extremely cold with highs in the single and
teens below zero Monday and Tuesday. The coldest morning will be
Tuesday with values expected to range from 20 to 30 below. Wind
chills will range from 25 to 45 below zero Sunday night through

Gradual warming commences Tuesday night or Wednesday depending on
the timing of the departing arctic high as 500mb split flow develops
across the western CONUS and traverses over the northern plains.
Temps will warm into the teens Wednesday, 20s Thursday and possibly
some 30s for Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Expect fair skies and very light winds through the forenoon. Light
winds will increase from the south over eastern ND and the Red
River Valley corridor throughout the afternoon... along with
scattered high clouds. Low level clouds will approach eastern ND
from the west late tonight.




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