Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANTIOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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