Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252314
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY (WEAK SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS ACROSS SE ND/WC MN LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS).

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS NE ND AND NW
MN...WHICH IS STRONG. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
(20-25KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS 15-20KNTS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALLER BUT ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. OF
COURSE...THIS ASSUMES STORMS INITIATE...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR INITIATION WILL BE AS THE FORCING FROM AN UPPER WAVE
(SEEN BY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA) OVERRIDES THIS
REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (TIMING THE SHORTWAVE WOULD BE AROUND
02Z INTO EASTERN ND). THIS TIMING IS WELL PAST PEAK
HEATING...WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE. CURRENT CU
FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO LIKELY WILL
BE AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FROM THE WEST TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO BE MARRED BY
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE DOING A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND
A BAND OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A A BIT OF THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM VALLEY CITY WESTWARD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SD VIA WATER VAPOR...AND WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
HAVE RISEN TO 2500 J/KG OVER OUR AREA...AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT IS HARDER TO PICK OUT ON WV LOOP COULD SET SOMETHING OFF.
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 KTS OR SO BUT SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATER ON
TONIGHT WE LOSE INSTABILITY AND THE MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD INTO MN...SO LOWERED POPS A BIT AFTER 06Z.

TOMORROW...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BRINGING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
AND YET MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THERE WILL
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPPING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...SO KEPT MOST POPS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING QUITE A BIT TO OUR
WEST...WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ON MONDAY AND DEW POINTS NEAR
70...IT WILL BE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE AND COULD GET CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT MOST
OF THE MODELS KEEP US CAPPED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SO WENT
MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS IN CASE SOMETHING COMES OVER THE EDGE OF THE
CAP. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME PRETTY GOOD CONVECTION WILL BE GOING WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
POPS AND SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY COMING FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THAT SO WILL KEEP THE
SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH COULD
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL COVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...WITH
CLOSED LOWS ANCHORED VCNTY ND/MT AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
WESTERN LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE COMPLEX SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FEW PERIODS OF SCATTERED TSTMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THURS AND FRI SHOULD OFFER A DRY INTERVAL WITH THE RISK OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LOW STRUCTURE MAKING A RUN AT THE
REGION EARLY WEEKEND. VERY WARM EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION TO SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS MID WEEK WITH A RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDER
CHANCES EXIST...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...TG



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