Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW TSTMS HAVE FORMED AROUND THE KINL AREA WHICH ARE DRIFTING
EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW WEAK ECHOES STRETCHING BACK TOWARD THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS...BUT THESE HAVE QUICKLY MOVED EAST. NOT LOOKING
LIKE ANYTHING WILL FORM BACK INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE KJMS AREA. PRETTY WEAK SFC FLOW WEST OF THE VALLEY. FOG
WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE AS IT WAS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING.
FORECAST ALREADY HAS IT MENTIONED IN THE EAST TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY THE KTVF/KBJI AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE JUST LOOKING AT SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE. WAS
QUITE A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING AT EVERY TAF SITE BUT KDVL SO HAVE
KEPT IT MENTIONED AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GET GOING FROM THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING...BUT ONLY FROM 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



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