Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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241
FXUS63 KFGF 081001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ007-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK



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