Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
848
FXUS63 KFGF 292023
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Temperatures will the main issue for the period along with onset
of rain.

The surface high pressure will move further off to the east
tonight, leaving a bit more pressure gradient than we had last
night. Even with continued very dry dew points across our eastern
counties, think there will be enough mixing to keep us out of the
teens tonight. There should also be increasing high clouds over
the southern counties as the upper low over the southern Rockies
moves out into OK/KS. Continued to keep lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

Tomorrow, the main upper low will continue to spin over the
Central Plains, with the surface low lifting northeast. The models
are in decent agreement on some precip starting to enter the far
southern CWA Sunday, although with very dry air in place it will
take a while for saturation to occur and anything to reach the
ground. For now have POPs ramping up during the afternoon, across
the southeastern counties. The clouds and incoming precip will
keep the southeastern counties below the 50 mark while the
northwest will see more sunshine and could again push 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Sunday night and Monday...the main upper low will be lifting
through IA and into the Great Lakes, with the surface low passing
by our southeastern counties. There should be a decent pressure
gradient with breezy north winds across our southern counties on
the north side of this system. There is not a lot of cold air
already in place to work with unlike the last system, but models
all have a stretch of below freezing 925mb temps thanks to
dynamic cooling with the low pressure system. Model soundings have
soundings saturating and then dropping below freezing overnight
across our southeastern counties, and there is good lift from
850mb frontogenesis along with the synoptic forcing. With snow
falling at night and the possibility of some decent rates again,
think that accumulation will be possible. Some of the ensemble
runs have over 10 inches at PKD and other sites, but this seems a
bit excessive. Still some uncertainty but with the possiblity of
at least 3-6" and some higher amounts not out of the question,
will go ahead and put out a winter storm watch for the southeast.

Monday night through Saturday...By Monday night/early Tuesday morning,
the main upper low responsible for the early week system should
be pushing off towards the upper Great Lakes and taking the bulk
of its precipitation chances with it. Following this system, upper
ridging will quickly build into the far western CONUS with
northwest flow setting up for our area on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Minor precipitation chances for this period still look reasonable
as several work waves pass through the upper flow. Impacts should
be pretty minimal with temperature profiles suggesting mostly
rain.

Dominant upper ridging will then build into the central portion of
the country by the end of the work week and start of the weekend
with more spring-like conditions hopefully returning.

Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate throughout the end of
the week reaching around normal values by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

All sites are VFR with some cirrus moving across the area. KDVL
has been seeing some reduced vis with HZ at times but web cams
seem good and visibilities are back up so will leave out for now.
Increasing high clouds but all sites will be VFR through the end
of the period. Winds will be light and variable at some places, or
out of the southeast at less than 8 kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for MNZ024-031-032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Lee
AVIATION...JR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.