622
FXUS63 KFGF 060800
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeast winds today and tonight across eastern North
  Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota, with gusts up to
  50 mph at times.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough across the Rockies
slowly propagating east. Ensemble guidance in good agreement
with an upper low developing across western North Dakota over
the next couple days, and then mid to late week propagating
south and then east, with ridging building into the region while
that takes place. There is some uncertainty with how the upper
low will eventually eject eastward, but these differences do
not bring many different scenarios for our region. For Friday
and beyond confidence is very low, although temperatures will be
around normal values.

...Strong winds today and tonight...

For the southwestern two-thirds of the CWA, surface pressure
gradient increases by this afternoon along with winds aloft.
Model soundings indicate mixing up to around 900mb, with winds
near 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer - supportive of wind
advisory criteria (30 mph sustained with gusts over 45 mph).
There is a very low probability scenario of gusts up to 60 mph
that exists given winds near 850mb around 50-55 knots, which
would happen if mixing is deeper than anticipated. For this to
happen surface temperatures would need to be mid to upper 70s.

...Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday...

Strong 850mb jet will bring moisture and weak instability
northward along with associated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight, with the band of activity slowly
propagating northward overnight.

This afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability
across southeast North Dakota, a couple stronger elevated storms
may exist given stronger deep layer shear.

Tuesday early afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon
instability across a narrow band from Bemidji to the northwest.
Deep layer shear will be very strong (near 50 knots) when CAM
solutions indicate storms, and if instability is strong enough a
few stronger storms would exist.

Not expecting a severe weather outbreak or anything like that,
but would not be surprised if we get a marginal severe
thunderstorm report or two.

Rainfall will be more hit and miss with this system - generally
0.25 to 0.50 inches, with isolated amounts up to an inch or two.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF
sites. Cloud cover is expected to increase from west to east
starting overnight, with gradually lowering ceilings approaching
the middle of the day Monday. Winds increase out of the
southeast by midday, with gusts as high as 40 knots persisting
through at least late afternoon at most locations, with KDVL
possibly seeing gusts up to 45 knots. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible starting around 01Z for KDVL and 03Z
for most other locations. Isolated stronger storms are possible.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Lynch