Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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360
FXUS63 KFGF 230337
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
937 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Main issue for the 10 PM update is to begin cutting counties from
the dense fog advisory as visibilities for all but Roseau County
have improved...with Warroad continuing to show 1/4 SM. Will need
to watch counties to the as as Baudette and Waskish have both
dropped to 1/2 SM and HRRR guidance had shown this trend but was
way too early in timing. Southwest winds not too far behind and
once Warroad switches, expect vsbys to improve. With the winds
switching over the next hour or two will hold off on adding
counties to the east. Also lowered temps in the west a deg or two.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Forecast issue for immediate short term will be dense fog
headlines. Some sites have seen an increase in visibility and HRRR
does slide lower vsbys eastward while the GLAMP25 guidance
improves things gradually in the current area but does not advect
the lower vsbys eastward. I prefer the latter...the question is
when and how much improvement will we see in the advisory
timeframe. At this point, cigs are ranging from 1/4 SM to 3/4 SM
along and north of Hwy 2...so will keep things in place
considering the calm winds...and monitor/consider for early
cancellation later in the evening. Only change to ongoing forecast
will be to re-run ForecastBuilder to yield snow over freezing
drizzle given presence of ice aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Fog and light pcpn chances again the main issue for tonight.
Narrow band of dense fog just east of the valley showing signs
lifting. To the east of this band visibility good so unsure at
this point if this band will spread east or continue to lift. For
now with improving vsby will allow dense fog advisory expire and
will maintain mention of fog through evening to be safe. Weak mid
level shear axis skirting the international border mainly
affecting far northern Minnesota portion of the forecast area.
Weak lift with this feature, Colder air aloft and marginally
sufficient RH through the column feel that feel p-type will be
mainly snow although cannot rule out a brief mix. Anticipating
that snow will be main p-type not feeling there will be any travel
issues however evening shift will have to monitor. Elsewhere just
looking at mainly clouds overnight. With weak cold advection
temperatures will be cooler than previous nights with minimums blo
freezing overnight so any wet roadways may get slick.

Monday should be mainly quiet with temperatures generally at or
blo freezing. Introduced some slight pops across the far sw late
in the day as the leading edge of snow shield from next system may
reach this area by evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Watching system ejecting from the Rockies Mon night with latest
operational and ensemble guidance indicating the best potential for
heaviest QPF will be south of the region. The far southern FA (south
of I-94) could receive perhaps one to three inches of snow during
Tue/Tue night. The ECMWF has been pretty consistent with a more
progressive southern track while the GFS, as often is the case, has
been gradually trending farther to the north.

The main upper low will move by to the south, but several weak
reinforcing shortwaves will be rotating through during the period.
This will bring some light snow at times, but pcpn should be very
light with minimal accumulations. The shortwaves will also help
shift surface winds to a more northwesterly direction and bring some
cold air advection dropping mid week temps into the low and mid
20s, still above seasonal averages.

(Thu-Sun)

Cyclonic flow lingering into Thu could still produce some light
snow/snow showers east of the valley. Otherwise dry weather to
prevail from Fri into the weekend with temps climbing to the mid and
upper 20s for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR cigs with vsbys fluctuating from IFR to MVFR in the
FAR/TVF/BJI areas. A small hole in the clouds over DVL is working
east along Hwy 2 and may cause a break in MVFR cigs over GFK later
in the evening but this will be short lived. Expect primarily MVFR
around and west of Grand Forks.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Speicher



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