Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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031
FXUS63 KFGF 090527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BJI. MODELED RH VALUES INDICATE BJI SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE 09Z
TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FEET THEN MOVE DROP SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...REACHING TVF AND GFK
AROUND 10Z AND FAR AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE VALLEY.
APPEARS DVL WILL BE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. MODELS DO INDICATE CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE MID DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CIGS REMAIN VFR AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



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