Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAN AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN COAST BY SUN. REINFORCING TROUGH OVER
SASK/MAN SAT WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SUN. THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUN NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FIFTIES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY. MOST PLACE WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SAT MORNING.

RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE
WAS DECREASING. FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BDE TO
OAKES ND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST UNDER 10
KNOTS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

(MONDAY-THURSDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER RIDGING WILL
OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PLACING THIS
AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT BY WED-THUR. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP AT ANY
TIME GIVEN NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES EITHER ROUNDING THE RIDGE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...OR EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN COAST TROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (WED-THUR)
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VERY
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME
AREAS COULD EVEN FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE IN THE VALLEY AT TIMES.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30KT ON FRI BUT WILL DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT NEAR BJI AND
FAR...WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK


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