Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS SFC RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE CWA TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF WEST CNTRL
MN HAVE CLEARED OUT AND MID CIGS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS SE
ND...HOWEVER EXPECT REGION TO BE CLEAR BY ABOUT 1830 L TONIGHT
BASED ON TIMING TOOL AND CURRENT TRENDS. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CALM WINDS OVER SOME
LIGHT FRESH SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO SO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF VERY
QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING IN THE
OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE NAM DNG TRENDS REPRESENT TEMPS WELL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD BE IN THE TEENS BELOW WITH RETURN
FLOW...IF PICKING UP FAST ENOUGH...HELPING APPARENT TEMPS APPROACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ADJUST TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS
WITH THIS REASONING AND NO CHANGES BEYOND 18Z TOMORROW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SKY AND TEMP TRENDS. CURRENT VIS
SAT SHOWING MOST OF ND COVERED WITH MID CLOUD DEC THAT IS SLOWLY
CLEARING ALONG INTL BORDER...AND ADVECTING INTO MAJORITY OF W
CNTRL MN. WILL NEED TO INCREASE SKY TODAY AS THE INHERITED GRIDS
INDICATING NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREV
THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEG BUT STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...AND WITH SE WINDS
BRINGING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS DON`T THINK ANYTHING WILL FALL OUT
OF MID DECK. THE LAST VIS SHOT IN DID SHOW THE MID DECK DEVELOPING
A HOLE OVER RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY SO WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE 1 PM UPDATE EARLY IF THINGS CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN TRENDS SHOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARDS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...JR






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