Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Freshened up grids based on latest trends. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The forecast continues to be on track at this time. Monitoring
southern MN and eastern SD for hints of higher dew points or
very low level stratus as the NAM tries to bring into our area.
Still continues to look like a clear forecast with only a few high
clouds looks on track like the GFS would have. Southerly winds
will help keep the temps up tonight and provide a warmer starting
point for tomorrow.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures and winds will be the primary issues for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains, with
the surface trough over the Northern Rockies. Winds from the south
have brought temperatures up into the 60s and low 70s this
afternoon, although the cirrus across the north has tempered
warming just a bit. Expect readings to get a few degrees warmer
this afternoon before starting to fall off this evening. The
winds will stay around 8 to 12 mph overnight and should keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixed. Higher dew points will also be
moving in as moisture return continues so will keep lows in the
40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow, the surface trough to the west deepens. With a tight
pressure gradient and 925mb winds at near 40 kts to mix down, we
should see another fairly windy day. Will keep readings below
advisory criteria for now but it could be close. Southerly winds
and 925mb temps in the upper teens C should bring another warm
day, although with more southeasterly fetch than southwesterly
and some cirrus think we will stay below record highs at this

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry weather continues under a ridge that moves out as a trough
approaches this weekend. A low pressure system over the Canadian
Prairies supported by this trough will bring a cold front though
eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday. This cold
front will bring an end to our significantly above normal
temperatures. There is better agreement amoung model guidance for
moisture in northwest Minnesota than in eastern North Dakota. The
timing of the cold front on Saturday still has disagreement in model
guidance. The ECMWF is progressing the front more slowly than the
NAM, GFS, or CMC. The ECMWF and NAM are also giving more moisture to
eastern North Dakota than the GFS and CMC.

Another system will move through Monday bringing with it chances for
more rain. Once again the better chance will be in northwest
Minnesota but there is disagreement in current model guidance. The
ECMWF is developing a stronger low with this system while the GFS
and CMC keep a much  weaker system. Northwesterly flow aloft will be
present until Thursday when another upper trough approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, there is
a small likelihood of some IFR cigs near the FAR/GFK terminals
late tonight/early tomorrow. However, chance appears very slim at
this point and did not include in TAFs at this time. With the
strong southwesterly winds just off the surface, did include LLWS
at FAR tonight. Otherwise...breezy south winds expected tomorrow.


Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

South winds will continue overnight and bring more moisture into
the area. Winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range with
gusts up to 40 mph by afternoon tomorrow. However, with the
moisture moving back into the region the minimum relative humidity
values will stay in the 40 to 50 percent range.




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