Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291459
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Some surface warming across the Devils Lake to Valley City to
Fergus Falls area is already resulting in cumulus formation there.
The high resolution models are showing some showers forming again
by late morning along and just east of this line, then slowly
moving into Minnesota through the afternoon. Instability is weak,
but a few rumbles of thunder are possible, especially as the
activity progresses into west central MN this afternoon. Will only
keep ISO to SCT coverage amounts, as it will really be just a few
cells here and there. Still expect clearing to slowly progress
eastward through the day, taking last to reach the Lake of the
Woods area. Unlike the fairly calm wind yesterday, northwest winds
will be steady today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

forecast challenges continue to be rain chances and temperatures.

remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east
today. Deformation zone rain band currently east of the valley
should exit the region by noon. will likely see some redevelopment
this afternoon from far northern valley into nw MN along weak
convergence zone and impulse tracking along international border.
convective parameters marginal but cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms. Clearing will spread into the SW half today as
column dries. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high
temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more
solar.

Any lingering shra should diminish with loss of heating this
evening. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler than recent nights.

Dry conditions should hold for most of the day Monday. Early solar
and warm advection should result in warmest temperatures of the
holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Convection developing over the western Dakotas vcnty surface low
and attached boundaries Monday afternoon will propagate east into
the region Monday night. Best potential looks to be across the
south half region in vcnty of boundary/SD surface low and favored
convective parameters. Cannot rule out a few strong storms.

Tuesday will continue to be active as upper low reaches the region
by evening. With potential for surface low position over the
forecast area and enough instability/cape may set up for another
weak tornadic event??

Shra will continue tuesday night as upper low drifts across the
forecast area.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as SFC low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

CIGS MVFR-IFR across all but the far southwest which has cleared
off allowing for patchy dense fog. Expect cigs to slowly lift
through the morning with most areas VFR by afternoon. The
remainder of the period should be VFR.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker


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