Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
301 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Temperatures and the onset of snow in the south tonight will be
the main challenges for the period.

A shortwave trough currently over ND will rotate into the MN
arrowhead today, with surface low pressure lingering over
Manitoba. Some light flurries will linger in the northeastern
counties early on, but otherwise conditions will be fairly quiet
today. The west winds will help push the fog/drizzle eastward, but
clouds will continue for much of the day with sat loops showing
most of the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces socked
in. The west winds will also bring some weak cold air advection,
which should knock temperatures back a few degrees compared to
yesterday with highs in the 20s to low 30s.

Tonight, the main upper trough moves into the Rockies, with a
surface low starting to deepen over the KS/Neb border. A weak lead
shortwave moving into western SD will help some light snow start
to develop along the mid level baroclinic zone near the SD/ND
border tonight. Most of the activity in the evening will be to our
west, but think our far southwestern counties should see some snow
starting to come in with best chances for accumulation after
midnight. Up to a half an inch in the southwestern counties will
be possible overnight. The clouds in that area should keep temps
in the 20s, but the northwestern counties could see a few breaks
in the overcast and temps dip into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday...The main upper trough moves out into the
Plains and tracks mostly to our south, with a strong deformation
zone and tight pressure gradient remaining over SD and southern
MN. The northern edge of the snow will brush our far southern
counties, with 1 to 3 inches possible by Wednesday morning. A few
ensemble members track the system a bit further north and give us
more snow, but those seem to be outliers so will keep snow amounts
sub-advisory level for now. A shortwave moving in on the backside
of the main trough will come through on Wednesday, but models are
all in pretty good agreement with any snow being very very light.
Will keep 20-30 POPs but little to nothing in the way of QPF or
snow amounts. Winds will pick up from the northwest on the
backside of the departing surface low on Wednesday but do not
think it will be high enough to cause widespread blowing snow
problems with the everything well crusted over from recent warm
temps. Temps through mid week will continue to be well above
seasonal averages with highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s.

Thursday-Sunday...00z models agree with north flow aloft and weak
ridging toward the end of the period. Clouds and flurries likely
the main result, with brief periods of clearing possible.
Temperatures below freezing, but slightly above normal values.
Will need to watch a clipper system at the start of the work week
(just beyond this forecast range)for potential winter impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR cigs with vsbys fluctuating from IFR to MVFR in the
FAR/TVF/BJI areas. A small hole in the clouds over DVL is working
east along Hwy 2 and may cause a break in MVFR cigs over GFK later
in the evening but this will be short lived. Expect primarily MVFR
around and west of Grand Forks.




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