Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230857
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Main forecast challenge will be cloud trends today. Current
satellite imagery shows an area of lower clouds seeping from north
to south through the FA. This does have some holes in it, so some
areas may start the day with a little sun while others are
cloudy. Not seeing any fog and with the cool northerly flow, do
not expect too much of it either. The other big story for later
today into tonight is the winter storm system that was forecast to
brush our southern FA tonight into Friday has now shifted further
south again. This results in no snow for this FA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The cooling trend continues for late week into the upcoming
weekend. Winds could be a little gusty on Friday, but with no snow
now expected, it will not result in any travel issues either.
Still looking like there could be some light snow by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, but nothing very significant.

Models continue to indicate a split jet scenario with the northern
stream showing a trof over the Great Lakes region. As the upper trof
propagates eastward...expect a shift in the upper ridge over the
area bringing slightly warmer temperatures. Otherwise...expect
mainly tranquil weather with an occasional shower.

By Tuesday...another low pressure system is expected to develop over
the central plains with an influx of Gulf moisture streaming north.
Models vary greatly as to placement of sfc features so confidence is
low as to where the greatest chances for precipitation are.
Therefore...will continue to follow guidance and go with a blended
soln with respect to POPs for now. Behind the system...expect a
slight cooling trend to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Expect a mostly VFR sky and vsby fcst thru the pd. Have some drier
air moving south and this is helping to clear out the MVFR clouds.
Some additional 4-6k ft agl clouds moving in from Manitoba and
some high clouds as well and suspect we will see a sct-bkn low end
VFR deck at many spots thru the pd. Winds northerly 5 to 12 kts
becoming more northeast Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle


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