Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






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