Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200047
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR






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