Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250219 AAE
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Convection in the southeast has ended or moved to the east of the
FA...so the remaining challenge for the tonight period remains the
onset of precipitation with the upcoming low pressure system. The
current grid sets look comparable to new 00Z NAM data, with the
southern and far western fringes of the CWA possibly seeing some
activity by 12Z, however will remove any low POPs prior to 09Z.
The main lift of precip from south to north continues to be in the
15Z to 18Z timeframe as an upper wave interacts with surface low
over western Dakotas. No changes to tomorrow period planned at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A few isolated storms that developed from Becker down through
Grant counties have moved out of the FA into Todd county, although
a shower remains in Otter Tail and souther Wadena counties. Will
continue isolated showers and storms in the far southeast through
01Z. Very little activity associated with departing upper wave in
southern Manitoba. Storms north of the border heading east could
make Lake of the Woods before petering out, so will keep low POPs
in LOW County for the next two to three hours but do not expect
anything across Roseau to Warroad, should remain right over the
lake. Loss of solar heating and absence of strong support is
allowing current storms to die and inhibiting new convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main impacts through the short term will be next rain event
Wednesday-Wednesday night. Models in better agreement through
Wednesday with biggest differences in rain potential/placement in
later periods where guidance is all over the place.

Uncertainty continues with TSRA potential remainder of afternoon
into the evening. Surface wind field remains weak with minimal
upper support. There is modest instability/cape and no cap in
place over all but DVL Basin. Cu fields have been developing from
far SE ND into west central and northern MN so have some low pops
in this region as echoes begin to develop. Expect what ever
develops will weaken with loss of heating. Later tonight models
slower in lifting rain band northward with next wave so trimmed
back pops until closer to daybreak. Minimum temperatures should be
similar to last night.

More significant short wave and associated surface low will lift
NE Wednesday into the FA. Arcing band of SHRA/TSRA will lift
northward through the FA. Enough instability/cape and shear along
with low level convergence for severe storm potential. Feel there
will be enough clouds to hold temperatures into the 70s.

Best rain potential will shift into the northern FA Wednesday
night as low and wave lift north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Low will wobble around the northern forecast area Thursday for
continued rain potential, mainly across the north. Uncertain about
coverage at this point so held with chance pops.

Unsettled weather continues into Friday as southern stream upper
low begins to lift northward.

As southern stream upper low lifts northward into the N central US
rain chances will continue into the holiday weekend. The best
potential looks to be Saturday surrounded by lesser rain chances.
Does not look like a wash for the weekend and any breaks in the
clouds will allow temperatures to recover into mainly the 70s.

Conditions begin to improve Mon-Tue as remnants of the upper low
lifts ne. Temperatures to remain at or a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR tonight...rain showers and thunderstorms will begin spreading
from the southern valley northward by mid-morning, reaching the
Highway 2 corridor by noontime. Will introduce -TSRA in all TAFs,
although do expect showers and storms throughout the day.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher


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