Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE DRIEST AIRMASS CURRENTLY IS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THIS AREA TENDS TO BE COLDEST ON THE SECOND
NIGHT OF THE HIGH. BASED ON FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S DID ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS FROM BAUDETTE THROUGH BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS
TO WADENA AND ALSO INCLUDED AREAS A BIT WEST TOWARD FOSSTON AND
MAHNOMEN AS THESE ARE TYPICAL COLD POCKETS AS WELL. REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 33 TO 36
RANGE. SOME FROST WILL OCCUR, BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD. COORD BY WFO
BIS LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE ALL OF EASTERN ND
INTO THE PART OF NW AND WC MINNESOTA NOT IN A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A GOOD 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY`S WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. CLEAR AND NOT AS COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MID
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. FRIDAY LOOKS MILD AS WELL WITH UPPER
60S TO MID 70S UNDER SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHWEST WIND NR 10 KTS.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL 500MB FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS
BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MEANS BACK TO ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE DRY BUT PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE SOUTH STARTING ON SAT. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS TAKE
THE TRACK OF THE MAIN WAVE AND SFC LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP
INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA UNLESS THIS TRACK CHANGES. THIS WOULD
ALSO FAVOR SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-NORTHERN
FA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VARIES BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING IT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS/RAIN TEMPS SHOULD RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIN CI CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN FA OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NW-W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

RECENT RAINS CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS. THE MAPLE
RIVER NEAR MAPLETON IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND LATEST HYDROGRAPH
INDICATES CRESTING SHOULD BE SOON. ALSO TWO RIVERS RIVER AT
HALLOCK IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND STILL RISING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO CREST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO REMAINS AT
ACTION STAGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHER RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE INCLUDE PARK RIVER AT
GRAFTON AND THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT HARWOOD. FORTUNATELY...A DRY
REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013-014-027-029-030-040.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-
     015>017-022>024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



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