Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251952
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAST THE WIND SPEEDS DIE DOWN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE KBJI TO LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION
SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. WINDS ARE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS BECOMING MORE MARGINAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE KDVL REGION...SO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW
COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FROM THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SEEING SOME SUN NOW FROM THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH MORE
CLOUDS HOLDING EAST OF THE VALLEY. PLAN ON KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
QUESTION IS THEN HOW MUCH CLEARING HOLDS AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT
TEMPS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS AN ISSUE INTO THU TOO. IF IT STAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO REBOUND QUICKER/HIGHER THAN IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA ON FRI AND MAY
LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS FINALLY BEGIN A
LITTLE BIT MORE OF A RISE ON SAT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THRU WED...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE VALLEY SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. SAT
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL MANITOBA SFC LOW
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS TIMING...WITH THE GFS PROGGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE 00Z TO 06Z SUN TIME FRAME AND THE ECMWF 6
HOURS SLOWER. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND MODEL SUPPORTS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE QPF IS
IN AN AREA WITH THICKNESS VALUES EXCEEDING THE 540 DAM
THRESHOLD...INDICATING RAIN...WITH A MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER
NERN ND. VALUES DO QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP FIELD...SO
AREAS TO THE EAST COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETS UP ...WITH A FEW MINOR VORTS
MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE A CANADIAN ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE SETS UP TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON SFC PATTERN
FOR A MID WEEK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE WINDY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS INTO VFR RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWING A
CLEARING HOLE OVER NORTHEAST ND...MAINLY THE DVL AREA...HOWEVER
UPSTREAM IN SW MANITOBA SHOWS MORE CLOUDS INBOUND. WILL REMOVE CIGS
FOR THE ND SITES IN THE LATE AFTN...AND BRING VFR CIGS BACK AROUND
MID EVENING. MN SITES AND EVEN FAR WILL HAVE PERIODS OF VERY GUSTY
WINDS BRINGING VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 SM IN BLSN. THIS WILL IMPROVE BY
SUNDOWN...AND MVFR CIGS ON MN SIDE WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT EXPECT
VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PREV WINDS WERE OVER FORECAST...AND HAVE REDUCED
SLIGHTLY THE WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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