Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few echoes remain along the Canadian border in North Dakota
stretching down toward Bemidji. These continue to move east
southeast, but models continue to show the potential for
additional isolated showers anywhere along and north of highway 2
overnight. These will be pretty minimal, not producing much pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

500 mb low in far NW Ontario with upper flow around the low
meeting up with the stronger westerly flow aloft from the Pacific
eastward to ND. Left quad of 300 mb jet moving into ND late this
aftn/eve and with weak instability aiding in the development of
isolated showers as expected. Also noticing on water vapor a short
wave entering NW ND.  Kept isold shra/tsra into the evening and
kept isold showers most areas overnight as areas of mid/high level
moisture around and could be light showers overnight.

Stronger upper wave to move east-southeast thru the nrn Rockies
and into the nrn Plains Saturday. Associated sfc low will move
across E ND Saturday aftn and enough forcing with the upper
wave/sfc features to bring a widespread light rain event to much
of the fcst area Saturday into Saturday evening. Most coverage of
rain central ND into SE ND/central into NE ND. Rainfall amounts
mostly 0.10 to 0.25 inch, which is lower than previous fcsts had
indicated.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Shower threat diminishes Saturday evening as wave moves out. Look
for a north wind Saturday overnight into Sunday with a bit cooler
air moving southward. NW flow aloft Sunday into Monday along with
some moisture and weak shortwaves will give a chance for a few
showers. Temperatures below normal Sun-Mon.

Tuesday and into early Wednesday look to bring the best chances
for dry weather with a small area of surface high pressure moving
through.

Models then depict a decent upper wave moving through the northwest
flow aloft allowing precipitation chances to return by midweek.
Plenty of model variability remains regarding the surface features
with the GFS depicting a relatively stronger surface low passing
right through the Northern Plains while the ECMWF splits the area
between two separate surface systems. The active weather could
extend through the second half of the work week depending on how the
models resolve their timing differences. Regardless, at this time,
confidence remains low enough to continue a blended approach of
slight chance/chance PoPs through the period.

Thermal profiles remain fairly consistent with highs remaining in
the 70s/low 80s (possibly warmest on Wednesday ahead of the
aforementioned system) and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Not much difference from the previous set of TAFs. Overall winds
look to remain on the lower end. Models still indicating some low
end VFR or high end MVFR clouds along the highway 2 corridor
toward Saturday morning, which could affect KDVL/KGFK/KTVF. Not
high confidence in this occurring, so kept them in the low end of
the VFR range for now. Models continue to show the better
potential for afternoon thunder across the south (KFAR) along with
the better pcpn amounts. Therefore mentioned a thunder potential
at KFAR from mid afternoon into the early evening. Thereafter
coverage should decrease along with the thunder threat.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM... Riddle/Lee
AVIATION...Godon



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