Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111212
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A TAD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS UPDATE. WILL
TWEAK POPS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY FOR PRECIP THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICTED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST
SD WITH LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MAN WILL DROP
SOUTH TODAY. ALSO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER
SOUTHWEST MAN AND WILL MOVER THROUGH THIS MORNING. SO LOW POPS OVER
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER BC WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SAT. OTHER SHORT WAVE OVER GULF OF AK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GFS IS A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE TODAY WITH THERMAL FIELD. TODAY THE
GFS IS IF ANYTHING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER NORTH FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY, SAT, AND SUN WITH
THERMAL BOUNDARY PLODDING SOUTH. WILL GO WARMER FOR MON MORNING AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NEARLY ADIABATIC LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PRETTY COLD PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MID WEEK AND AFTER AS THE GEM HAS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A CUT OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECWMF HAS NO CLOSED WAVE AT ALL BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO SHOW SOME
CLUSTERING AROUND THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL VERY HIGH AND NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS.
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

RADAR INDICATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 35 KNOTS. SURFACE OBS/FOG LOOP
INDICATED VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ND GENERALLY ABOVE 6
THOUSAND FT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES




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