Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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045
FXUS63 KFGF 301014
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
514 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Expanded this morning`s fog a bit northward and decreased it in
the southeast based on latest trends and model guidance.
Visibilities are under 3 miles at Roseau...Fosston...and Bemidji.
Rest of forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

High pressure will continue to build in over the area today.
Currently...the surface ridge axis extends from western
Saskatchewan SSE into north-central ND. Aloft...an upper low is
moving east across NE Manitoba into Hudson Bay while an upper
ridge builds over the Rockies. Other than a few clouds to the
south from a system to the south...the area should be sunny with
light northerly winds...and highs in the 70s today. Tonight...we
might see some lows dip into the mid 40s across parts of NW MN as
the axis of surface high pressure will be centered in this area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

On Wednesday...the surface high will shift east while an upper
ridge builds in over the western Dakotas. Warm air advection in
the mid levels may bring some mid level clouds in the west on
Wednesday...but CAPEs should stay to the west...keeping TS
activity to the west as well. Higher low level theta-e pushes
east on Wednesday night...with some low CAPEs...but convection
looks limited. The GFS does have some QPF in NE ND Wed
night...but its the outlier and will keep it out for now.
So...another quiet day is likely for Thursday with southerly
winds and fair skies. Highs on Wed/Thu should be in the 70s to low
80s.

A well amplified upper ridge will keep the northern tier dry on
Friday before transitioning to a more active pattern for the weekend
on into next week as SW flow aloft sets up. The GFS and ECMWF are
in better agreement (than 00Z runs yesterday) for convection ahead
of a front Saturday evening with a decreasing threat Friday and
Friday night. Both models keep an active pattern into early next
week, but highest confidence at this point is probably late Sat
aftn and Sat evening ahead of the front, which will drop daytime
highs into the low to mid 70s for Sun/Mon. Confidence for
scattered activity on Monday is much lower given a surface high
over MB and northerly, dry flow into at least the northern half of
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A mostly clear sky remains across the area with some cirrus
over the far southern zones. Expect cirrus to remain over the
southern zones overnight before moving out Tue morning. Rest of area
will be clear. Some patchy fog may occur over the southeast zones
overnight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected tonight and Tue.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Speicher
AVIATION...Hoppes



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