Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 162013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND WE WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LOCAL VARIATIONS AND THE
COLDEST READINGS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES
CLEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THOUGH SO THIS COULD HELP TEMPS WARM
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM THU...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY. THERMAL FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME
AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/AND
OR ACCUMULATING SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SAT MORNING OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY AND TEMPS WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ACTIVE PERIOD AS JETSTREAM...STORM TRACK TARGETS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE ACROSS ON S MANITOBA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHC OF RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES WITH LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WAA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB






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