Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FA WITH SOME SPOTTY
ST DEVELOPMENT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE EASTERN FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS OVER ONT/MAN. PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN US.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND WAS
PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS OVER SD. MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THU AND
PRODUCE A CAP ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AND PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH AND IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES FOR FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT.
MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH BETTER THAN
35 KNOTS SHEAR.

QUIESCENT WEATHER FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WARMER THU WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE 100-104 RANGE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE ON BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SHIFT TO A COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND ON
SUNDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THERE ARE VARIATIONS ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG
TROUGH THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THE ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS THERE BUT FAIRLY LOW AND TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DEGREE OF ST/FG COVERAGE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE S-SE FA. GUIDANCE
LIFTS THIS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE DVL AND BJI
TAF SITES. IF THIS OCCURS NOT SURE HOW THICK FOG WILL GET AS WINDS
TO HOLD UP 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED SOME FOG/ST MENTION
ACROSS ABOVE AREAS LEAVING REMAINDER CLEAR. ANY LOWER CIGS/FG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...VOELKER


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