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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

000
FGUS73 KFGF 211452
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND

0953 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

                     FROM 3/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013


  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
   THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR HIGH WATER IN DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES.
    THESE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS
     ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD...

                     FROM 3/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013


. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
  PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
  FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

    FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
      WILL RISE ABOVE 1454.0 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
      5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1455.6 FEET.

            PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                     FROM 3/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1453.1 1453.4 1453.7 1454.0 1454.5 1455.0 1455.6
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1453.1 1453.4 1453.7 1454.0 1454.5 1455.0 1455.6


. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...

 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1451.5 FEET
 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1451.5 FEET

 *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
    FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                ...1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                ...1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                ...1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                ...1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                ...1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                ...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005

 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP

THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS (1949-2009) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER  (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:

                     HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...

  THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                         WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

                   CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK

OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE LEVELS
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. THEY SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE BY 9 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY
ISSUED ON THE FRIDAY OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER
THE 15TH OF THE MONTH...USUALLY THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720

$$
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