Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FGUS73 KFGF 061459
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND

900 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
                 FROM MARCH 10TH TO SEPTEMBER 30TH 2014

  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
   HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES IN NORTH DAKOTA.

. CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS...

 * FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, INFLOWS TO THE ICE-COVERED DEVILS
    AND STUMP LAKES ARE NIL WHILE ALL ND STATE OUTLETS SIT IDLE
     UNTIL THE SHEYENNE RIVER CONDITIONS PERMIT PUMPING IN LATE
      SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER.

 * CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS...SNOWPACK DEPTH RANGED FROM TWO TO
    THREE FEET AROUND THE BASIN WITH ABOUT 2 TO TWO AND A HALF
     INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT USED IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL
      FOR THIS OUTLOOK. FROST DEPTHS RANGED FROM TWO TO 3 FEET
       AROUND THE BASIN WITH SOIL MOISTURES RUNNING ON THE WETTER
        THAN NORMAL SIDE.

 * SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN...FOR THE
    NEXT TWO WEEKS TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE ZERO DEGREES
     FAHRENHEIT WITH A FEW ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME HIGHS ESPECIALLY
      IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN. NO BIG SNOW-STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.
       TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID MARCH.

* CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM MID-MARCH INTO APRIL...LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT
   COLDER NORTHWEST FLOWS TO PERSIST THROUGH MARCH INTO EARLY
    APRIL...BUT NOT AS COOL NOR AS LATE AS LAST YEAR. EXPECT BELOW
     NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER
      PRECIPITATION THAT MAY AFFECT THE SPRINGTIME FLOODING IS
       STILL POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS NORMAL...DURING THIS
        OUTLOOK PERIOD.

 * NO MORE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING OUTLOOKS PLANNED FOR MARCH
    UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRENT. WE WILL RETURN TO THE NORMAL
     MONTHLY SCHEDULE OF PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS AFTER
      THE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING HAS RECEDED...PROBABLY FOR THE
       LATE APRIL RELEASE. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO STATIC WINTERTIME
        LAKE FREEZES...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY OUTLOOKS FOR THE
         LATE OCTOBER...NOVEMBER NOR DECEMBER RELEASES.

. ADDITIONAL COMMENTS...

 * FLOOD FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED ARE GROWTH OF THE SNOWPACK...
    THE RATE OF SNOWMELT... HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW... RATE OF
     GROUND THAW DURING THE FLOOD AND OVERALL SOIL ABSORPTION
      DURING THE SNOW MELT AND SPRING RUNOFF PERIOD. THESE FACTORS
       WILL OFTEN BE MORE INFLUENTIAL THAN CONDITIONS WE HAVE
        EXPERIENCED SO FAR THROUGH MID JANUARY.

 * PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)
    OF PAST WEATHER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...FOR THE
     ENSEMBLE OF PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
      PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE OUTLOOKS
       VALID PERIOD.

. NEW DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...DUE TO  NORTH DAKOTAS CLIMATE
   AND THE LAKES RESPONSE TO THE SEASONS...THE ISSUANCE SCHEDULE OF
    HIGH LAKE LEVEL AND LOW LAKE LEVEL PREDICTIONS ARE KEYED TO THE
     RHYTHM OF THE LAKES. THE FOLLOWING IS THE ISSUANCE SCHEDULE...

    - DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE LEVELS IN LATE FALL AND DURING
       THE WINTER...NO OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE OCTOBER...
        NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER.

    - HIGH WATER PREDICTIONS WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JANUARY THROUGH
       LATE JULY AND WILL COVER THE TYPICAL LATE SPRING AND EARLY
        SUMMER LAKE LEVEL RISES WITH THE VALID PERIOD ENDING AT THE
         END OF SEPTEMBER.

    - LOW WATER PREDICTIONS WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JUNE THROUGH LATE
       SEPTEMBER AND WILL COVER THE TYPICAL MIDDLE SUMMER AND AUTUMN
        LAKE LEVEL FALLS WITH THE VALID PERIOD ENDING AT THE END OF
         NOVEMBER.

. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
  PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
  FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

    FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
      WILL RISE ABOVE 1453.1 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
      10 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1454.0 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
              FROM MARCH 10, 2014 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1452.5 1452.6 1452.8 1453.1 1453.6 1454.0 1454.5
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.5 1452.6 1452.8 1453.1 1453.6 1454.0 1454.5


. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...

 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1452.3 FEET
 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1452.3 FEET

 *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
    FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                ...1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                ...1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                ...1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                ...1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                ...1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                ...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005

 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING


. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP

THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 64 YEARS (1949-2012) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER  (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...

  THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                         WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

                   CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK

OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE LEVELS
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720

$$
TEAM FGF
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