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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
000
FGUS73 KFGF 211449
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-301200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
...MORE SNOW AND DELAYED THAW INCREASES FLOOD RISK YET AGAIN...
. OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
* THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE PERIOD FROM MARCH 25TH TO JUNE 23RD.
* THE PROBABILITIES OF MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
- NEW WEB PAGE DISPLAYING GRAPHICAL RISK OF FLOODING IS AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=FGF&PERCENT=50
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (GREATER THAN 50%) FOR...
- MAJOR FLOODING AT WAHPETON, FARGO, HALSTAD, OSLO, AND PEMBINA
ON THE MAINSTEM RED...HIGH LANDING ON THE RED LAKE RIVER,
ABERCROMBIE ON THE NORTH DAKOTA WILD RICE RIVER, THE WEST FARGO
DIVERSION, AND NECHE ON THE PEMBINA RIVER.
- MODERATE FLOODING AT HICKSON, GRAND FORKS AND DRAYTON ON THE
MAINSTEM RED...SABIN, HAWLEY, DILWORTH, HENDRUM, CLIMAX AND
HALLOCK ON THE MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES...AND KINDRED, HARWOOD,
MINTO AND GRAFTON ON THE NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
- MINOR FLOODING AT SHELLY, CROOKSTON, ALVARADO AND ROSEAU ON THE
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES...AND AT ENDERLIN, MAPLETON AND WALHALLA
ON THE NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
THERE IS A FAIR RISK (30% TO 50%) FOR
- MAJOR FLOODING AT GRAND FORKS AND DRAYTON ON THE MAINSTEM
RED...AND GRAFTON ON THE PARK RIVER ND.
- MODERATE FLOODING AT CROOKSTON, ALVARADO AND ROSEAU ON THE
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES...AND AT MAPLETON IN NORTH DAKOTA.
- MINOR FLOODING AT TWIN VALLEY AND MOREKASSEL BRIDGE ABOVE WARREN
ON THE MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES...AND AT LISBON AND HILLSBORO ON
THE NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
THERE IS LOW RISK (LESS THAN 30%) FOR
- MINOR FLOODING OR GREATER AT VALLEY CITY ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER.
. OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH
AFFECT EACH OF THE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT DETERMINE SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING WITHIN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN ARE DISCUSSED
BELOW:
* SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...
- SNOW STORMS...FREEZING RAIN AND BLIZZARDS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS HAVE ADDED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE BASIN-WIDE SNOWPACK.
GENERALLY FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF WATER HAVE
BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS WITH
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES OF WATER ADDED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
BASIN...SOUTH AND EAST OF WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE. THIS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED THE RISK FOR MAJOR FLOODING ALONG
THE MAINSTEM OF THE RED...AND FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING
ALONG THE TRIBUTARIES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR OUR AREA
ARE RANKING ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...AND ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BASIN /SOUTH OF FARGO AND MOORHEAD/ AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN
BASIN /ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/.
* WINTERTIME SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
- WITH A THICK BLANKET OF INSULATING SNOW...SOIL CONDITIONS AND
FROST DEPTHS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK. MOST
ALL AREAS HAVE NORMAL TO DEEPER THAN NORMAL FROST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. IN MOST
AREAS...THE TOPSOIL WAS NEARLY SATURATED PRIOR TO FREEZE UP
AND SHOULD ACT TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF.
DEEP SOIL MOISTURES ARE STILL QUITE DRY...BUT ARE ALSO QUITE
FROZEN...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABSORB ANY INITIAL MELTWATER.
DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS LAST YEAR...THERE IS SUBSTANTIALLY
MORE SURFACE STORAGE AVAILABLE /IN LAKES AND SLOUGHS/ THAN IN
PREVIOUS YEARS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE AREAS TYPICALLY DONT
CONTRIBUTE TO SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING. MEANWHILE...THE
AVAILABLE STORAGE IN LOCAL STREAMBEDS AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL QUITE RAPIDLY AND RUNOFF WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH.
* RIVER FLOWS AND ICE...
- THE US ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS WILL BE DRAWING DOWN THE RESERVOIR
LAKES FOR MAXIMUM FLOOD CAPACITY ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE
END OF MARCH. SOME DOWNSTREAM RIVER RISES WILL BE SEEN BUT THESE
WILL BE MANAGED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
RIVER ICE IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH LENGTHENING
DAYS AND INCREASING RIVER FLOWS SOME HEAVE AND CRACK OF RIVER ICE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. AS RUNOFF FLOODING BEGINS IN
APRIL...ICE BREAKUP WILL ACCELERATE AND SOME ISOLATED ICE JAM
FLOODING IS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY OCCURS NEAR TIGHT
BENDS IN THE RIVERS OR STREAMS...WHERE DEBRIS AND STRUCTURES ACT
TO CONSTRICT FLOWS AND NEAR CONFLUENCES WITH TRIBUTARY STREAMS.
* FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
- DELAYED THAW...RAPID THAW...RAIN ON THAW...ALL OF THESE ARE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. SINCE THE SPRINGTIME THAW AND SNOWMELT IS NOW
DELAYED INTO EARLY OR MID APRIL...THE RISK FOR A MORE RAPID WARMUP
AND THUS A SHORTENED OVERALL THAW CYCLE ARE HIGH. FURTHERMORE...AS
WE GET LATER INTO APRIL WE HAVE A HIGHER RISK OF HAVING A HEAVY
/CONVECTIVE/ RAINFALL EVENT OCCUR OVER THAWING SNOW...FROZEN GROUND
AND DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH WATER. THUS AN OVERALL INCREASED RISK
OF MODERATE AND MAJOR SCALE FLOODING IS EXPRESSED IN THIS OUTLOOK.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A GENTLE MELT CYCLE AND A MORE SUBDUED
RUNOFF...THOUGH THE BASE FLOWS UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD STILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AND EVEN MAJOR FLOODING
IN SOME LOCALES.
* SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...
- OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
CLIMBING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY NEXT TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK
...WITH A FEW BRIEF EPISODES OF VERY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
* SPRING FLOOD SEASON CLIMATE OUTLOOK...
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS IN MARCH WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTER
WEEKEND. A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
POSSIBLE IN EARLY APRIL. THE COOLER AND NOMINALLY WETTER EARLY
APRIL PATTERN MAY THEN TRANSITION TO A WARMER...POSSIBLY WETTER
PATTERN BY MID APRIL. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL
HIGHER RISK FOR A RAPID THAW IN MID APRIL...AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR HEAVY RAIN TO FURTHER EXACERBATE FLOODING.
. ANOTHER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE SCHEDULED AND ISSUED IF THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEFORE SNOW MELT RUNOFF BEGINS AND RIVERS
BEGIN RISING.
* FLOOD WARNINGS AND 7-DAY RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE WITHIN THE 7 DAY PERIOD OR THE RIVER LOCATION WILL
INCREASE IN FLOOD CATEGORY. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED
AT LEAST DAILY AND MORE FREQUENTLY IF NEEDED BY CHANGING
CONDITIONS.
. FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...THE FIRST GIVES THE
CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING
THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE SECOND
GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER
STAGES LISTED.
...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...
VALID FROM MARCH 25, 2013 TO JUNE 23, 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 3/25/2013 - 6/23/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : >95 54 >95 30 >95 12
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : >95 16 >95 8 25 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 72 >95 32 >95 19
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : >95 32 91 14 53 6
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : >95 54 >95 32 50 9
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : >95 62 >95 50 80 17
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : >95 41 >95 30 41 11
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 46 >95 40 >95 19
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
SABIN 12.0 15.0 19.0 : >95 66 79 12 24 <5
HAWLEY 7.0 9.0 11.0 : >95 50 85 24 17 <5
DILWORTH 12.0 20.0 26.0 : >95 69 >95 19 9 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 50 14 25 <5 14 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : >95 51 79 21 24 <5
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 62 27 14 6 <5 <5
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 87 21 54 8 24 <5
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : 72 28 67 24 62 19
CROOKSTON 15.0 23.0 25.0 : >95 56 38 14 17 8
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 76.0 : 45 11 14 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 53 22 33 11 6 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : >95 58 88 38 14 <5
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : 53 22 35 12 25 12
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
ABERCROMBIE 10.0 12.0 18.0 : >95 45 >95 35 >95 16
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 19 14 17 8 14 6
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 38 8 24 <5 16 <5
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 91 21 54 9 28 <5
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : >95 25 71 16 51 9
HARWOOD 884.0 886.0 891.0 : 90 21 77 17 28 8
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 58 21 8 8 <5 <5
MAPLETON 905.0 908.0 910.0 : 93 32 35 11 <5 <5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 35 14 28 8 11 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : >95 30 77 11 <5 <5
GRAFTON 12.0 13.5 14.5 : >95 19 80 <5 48 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : >95 17 6 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : >95 24 >95 21 >95 12
LEGEND:
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS)
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)
...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED RIVER LEVEL IS THAT
PERCENTAGE OF SIMULATIONS WHICH WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIC PERCENTAGE
FOR THE WHOLE VALID TIME PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT WAHPETON
WILL RISE ABOVE 17.2 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 20.5 FEET.
VALID FROM MARCH 25, 2013 TO JUNE 23, 2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 15.4 15.5 16.5 17.2 18.6 20.0 20.5
HICKSON 34.2 34.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 39.3 39.4
FARGO 34.2 34.8 36.9 38.1 39.1 40.9 41.3
HALSTAD 31.9 32.3 35.6 37.7 39.0 39.9 40.3
GRAND FORKS 41.9 42.4 44.5 46.0 48.1 50.6 53.1
OSLO 35.3 35.5 36.4 37.1 38.0 38.9 39.9
DRAYTON 39.8 40.3 41.1 41.8 42.9 43.9 44.8
PEMBINA 49.2 50.0 51.0 52.0 52.9 53.8 54.4
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
SABIN 14.3 14.4 15.3 16.9 18.9 21.0 22.1
BUFFALO RIVER.....
HAWLEY 8.4 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.7 12.3
DILWORTH 20.0 20.2 22.0 23.5 24.6 26.8 27.9
WILD RICE RIVER.....
TWIN VALLEY 7.5 8.0 8.9 10.0 12.1 14.5 16.0
HENDRUM 26.6 27.0 29.0 30.8 32.1 33.0 33.9
MARSH RIVER.....
SHELLY 9.4 10.0 12.8 15.7 19.1 21.6 22.8
SAND HILL RIVER.....
CLIMAX 18.2 19.4 23.0 26.6 29.9 36.9 38.9
RED LAKE RIVER.....
HIGH LANDING 9.8 11.1 11.8 14.3 15.6 17.1 18.3
CROOKSTON 17.9 19.3 20.7 22.1 24.4 26.5 28.5
SNAKE RIVER.....
ABOVE WARREN 64.7 64.9 65.7 66.7 69.1 72.1 73.9
ALVARADO 102.6 103.3 104.9 106.3 108.5 109.7 110.5
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
HALLOCK 804.9 805.9 806.8 807.9 809.3 810.6 810.9
ROSEAU RIVER.....
ROSEAU 12.7 13.2 14.0 16.4 19.2 21.1 21.6
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
ABERCROMBIE 20.1 20.6 22.9 24.7 26.1 27.8 28.8
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
VALLEY CITY 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.2 17.9 18.0
LISBON 11.9 12.2 12.7 14.0 16.9 20.7 22.5
KINDRED 15.5 16.2 17.1 19.4 20.7 21.2 21.2
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.5 18.5 19.5 21.3 23.1 23.2 23.2
HARWOOD 883.5 884.6 887.1 889.4 891.4 892.1 892.2
MAPLE RIVER.....
ENDERLIN 8.3 8.4 9.2 9.6 10.3 11.6 13.4
MAPLETON 904.9 905.3 906.0 906.7 908.8 909.5 909.9
GOOSE RIVER.....
HILLSBORO 5.0 5.1 6.5 8.0 13.5 16.3 17.0
FOREST RIVER.....
MINTO 6.4 7.0 8.2 8.9 9.7 10.2 10.6
PARK RIVER.....
GRAFTON 12.7 12.8 14.1 14.5 16.0 17.0 18.0
PEMBINA RIVER.....
WALHALLA 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.1
NECHE 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.6
. THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES...THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2009.
. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP
...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND MENU.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
A NEW...POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP (USE LOWER CASE)
ALSO...7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
$$
TEAM FGF
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- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC