Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FGUS73 KFGF 271854
ESFFGF
NDZ006-014-015-026-291900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

REISSUED TO REMOVE NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...NO CHANGE IN
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                    DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
               LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
   HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY
    AND SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND
     DECEMBER.

  THE AHPS GRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ARE ON THE WEB
      UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG-RANGE FLOOD RISK TAB AT...

             WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FGF

  DEPENDING ON THE SEASON, THE HIGH OR LOW WATER PROBABILITIES MAY
   BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.
    REFER TO THE SCHEDULING SECTION FARTHER ON IN THIS MESSAGE.


.  OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

    IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY THIS FALL AND WINTER IN THE DEVILS LAKE
     BASIN WITH THE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IN THE 25 TO 50
      PERCENTILE OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
       SO FAR FOR THIS PAST MONTH...THE WATER CONTAINED IN THE SNOW
       (0.64 INCHES)  IS AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH BELOW THE
        NORMAL SNOW WATER CONTENT. THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER REACHED
         1453.15 FEET.

    THE MODELING ASSUMES A FULL 600 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND DISCHARGE
     FROM THE WEST AND EAST DEVILS LAKE STATE OUTLETS FROM JUNE
      THROUGH NOVEMBER 10TH. THE NEXT THREE MONTHS ARE PROJECTED BY
       THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER TO HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR
        ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. EL
         NINO HAS NOT KICKED IN SO FAR...BUT IF IT DOES...THE DEVILS
          LAKE REGION WOULD TEND TO BECOME WETTER FOR THE SPRING AND
           SUMMER.

. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE
   OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE
    YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE PRECIPITATION
     AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE
      OUTLOOK.

  INTERPRETATION AID...THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS
   LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.0 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND
    ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.8 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS

             FROM JANUARY 19, 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1451.8 1451.8 1451.9 1452.0 1452.1 1452.5 1452.8
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1451.8 1451.8 1451.9 1452.0 1452.1 1452.5 1452.8


. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...

 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1451.6 FEET
 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1451.6 FEET

 *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
    FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                ...1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                ...1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                ...1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                ...1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                ...1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                ...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005

 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING


. OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...

 - BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY, ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
    PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

 - FOR JUNE AND JULY, BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES
    WILL BE PROVIDED.

 - FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
    PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.

 - NO PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE/NON-EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION WILL BE
    GIVEN FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER, SINCE LAKE FREEZE-UP
     LEVELS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FALL OUTLOOKS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY, 7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
 DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP

THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
  LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE VALID PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
  SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM 1949 TO 2012 AND
  CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER), AND SOIL
  MOISTURE.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
  AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
  BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAH`S
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
  SERVICES (AHPS).

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
  FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
    GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE
      OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE
        ON THE INTERNET AT:

             WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?/WFO=FGF

OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE
  LEVELS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUT WEB SITE. THEY
  SHOULD BE AVAILABLE BY 10:30 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC
  OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY ISSUED ON THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THE WEEK
  FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER THE 15TH OF THE MONTH, USUALLY
  THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720





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    WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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