National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000
FGUS73 KFGF 092004
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-15
9-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-095-
097-099-111200-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...A SLOW-MOTION WARM-UP PROLONGS SPRING SNOWMELT AND DELAYS
ONSET OF FLOODING...

THE SPRING THAW PROGRESS IS STILL LARGELY STATUS QUO FROM OUR
APRIL 4TH DISCUSSION.

THERE HAS BEEN AND ADDITIONAL MEASURE OF SNOW RIPENING AND SNOWMELT
ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS...SO THAT THERE ARE
MORE LARGE AREAS OF OPEN BARE GROUND...MAINLY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES AND UPLANDS IN SOUTH-WESTERN PART
OF THE RRN BASIN. THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANIAL AMOUNT OF SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN BASIN...NORTH OF GRANT COUNTY AND CLOSER
TO THE RED RIVER...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER.

IN THE MIDDLE-SHEYENNE RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE SMALL TRIBUTARY
STREAMS IN EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THE SNOWMELT HAS BEEN
MOST EVIDENT...THERE ARE SCATTERED OPEN AREAS WHERE THE MELT WATER
MIGHT BE INFILTRATING INTO THE TOP FEW INCHES OF THE SOIL...MAKING
FOR MUD ON TOP OF THE STILL FROZEN DEEPER SOIL. HOWEVER...THE LARGER
SCALE THAW HAS NOT YET OCCURRED ANYWHERE IN THE VALLEY...AND FUTURE
FROST ACTION MAY MAKE SOME OF THIS SOIL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF
INTO AREA DITCHES AND STREAMS. MEANWHILE...DITCH NETWORKS IN THESE
CENTRAL BASIN LOCATIONS ARE FAIRLY OPEN AND AVAILABLE TO HANDLE
WHATEVER RUNOFF MAY MATERIALIZE. THESE ARE ALSO AREAS WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN A LESSER CONCERN FOR SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.

IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...FROM SOUTHERN CASS AND CLAY
COUNTIES INTO RICHLAND AND WILKIN COUNTIES...THERE REMAINS A
SUBSTANTIAL AND VERY WET SNOWPACK...WITH DITCHES FILLING FROM SOME
LOCALIZED MELT AND RUNOFF WHILE AREA STREAMS AND RIVER CHANNELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING TO THAW AND OPEN UP. NORTHERN TRAVESE COUNTY HAS
SEEN PORTIONS OF THE MUSTINKA RIVER BASIN /WHICH EMPTIES INTO LAKE
TRAVERSE - A REGULATED USACE RESERVOIR/ SHOWING THE BEGINNINGS OF
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND SOME OVERLAND FLOOD ISSUES. FLOWS WERE
BEGINNING TO OPEN UP IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE RABBIT AND BUFFALO
RIVERS  AND OTHER SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS WELL. HOWEVER...MOST ALL OF THIS THAW AND RUNOFF WILL
BE STALLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES AGAIN
SHOW DAYTIME WARMING BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. HERE THE RISK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING REMAINS HIGH. THE LIKELY
RUNOFF PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EXTEND WELL INTO MIDDLE AND LATE
APRIL.

FAR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES HAVE YET TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF EVEN BEGIN...AND SNOWPACK RIPENING THERE IS FURTHER HAMPERED
BY THE ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WHERE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
WARMING IN THESE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES...THE NEXT COLD WAVE HAS
SLAMMED THE FLEDGLING THAW CYCLE BACK DOWN.  THESE AREAS STILL FACE
A RISK FOR SUBSTANTIAL OVERLAND AND RIVERINE FLOODING FROM LATE
APRIL INTO EARLY MAY.

THE NEAR TERM WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH BASIN TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH
BASIN...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
INSTEAD...OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 40
IN THE FAR NORTH BY SATURDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...NEAREST THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW TO WELL
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE CURRENT VERY COLD WEATHER PATTERN HAS SUCCEEDED IN SHUNTING A
STRING OF HEAVY PRECIITASION STORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR BASIN
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER DOES EXPECT SLIGHT WARMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AND A GENERAL SHIFT IN THIS VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK
CLOSER INTO OUR SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
NORTHERN BASIN BY NEXT WEEK. THUS THE RISK FOR SUBSTANTIAL SPRING
RUNOFF FLOODING IS FLAVORED WITH EXISTING SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE RUNOFF
CYCLE.

LOOKING AT THE FORECAST POINTS ON THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER...THE
FOLLOWING CRESTS AND DATES ARE FOR THE LATEST SIGNIFICANT /WITHIN
THE TOP 15 CRESTS/ FLOODS IN WHICH SNOWMELT APPEARED TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION.  RAINFALL MAY HAVE ALSO
CONTRIBUTED...HOWEVER IT WAS NOT THE PRIMARY WATER SOURCE FOR THE
FLOOD.

FORECAST POINTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...

WAHPETON ND          15.44 FEET ON 14 APRIL 1979
FARGO ND             34.93 FEET ON 19 APRIL 1979
HALSTAD MN           39.00 FEET ON 22 APRIL 1979
EAST GRAND FORKS MN  48.81 FEET ON 26 APRIL 1979
OSLO MN              38.00 FEET ON 23 APRIL 1997*
DRAYTON MN           43.66 FEET ON 28 APRIL 1979
PEMBINA ND           54.94 FEET ON 26 APRIL 1997*

*NOTE...USGS REOCRDS FOR OSLO AND PEMBINA HAVE A BREAK IN THE DATA
BETWEN 1976 AND 1985.

AS IT GETS LATER AND LATER INTO THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS. FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATE-
MENTS...AS WELL AS 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS...WILL BE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN
THAT PERIOD.

THE 7 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER
STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF
6 HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS
AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE
LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

WE WILL BE UPDATING THE SPRING THAW PROGRESS REPORTS PERIODICALLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS WE SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING OR UNTIL THE
SNOWPACK MELTS.

$$
TEAM FGF
NNNN
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
