Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FGUS73 KFGF 251741
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014


...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
   HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY AND
    SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND DECEMBER.

  THE AHPS GRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE ON THE WEB
   NO LATER THAN 10:30 AM THIS FRIDAY UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL
    LONG-RANGE FLOOD RISK TAB AT...

             WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?/WFO=FGF

  DEPENDING ON THE SEASON...THE HIGH OR LOW WATER PROBABILITIES MAY
   BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.
    REFER TO THE SCHEDULING SECTION LATER IN THIS MESSAGE.


. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE
   OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE
    YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE PRECIPITATION
     AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE
      OUTLOOK.

  INTERPRETATION AID...THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS
   LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 1453.2 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND
    ONLY A 5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1453.2 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                FROM JULY 25, 2014 TO OCTOBER 30, 2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1453.2 1453.2 1453.2 1453.2 1453.2 1453.2 1453.2
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1453.3 1453.3 1453.3 1453.3 1453.3 1453.3 1453.3


. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...

 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1453.2 FEET
 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1453.3 FEET

 *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
    FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                ...1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                ...1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                ...1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                ...1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                ...1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                ...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005

 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW GIVEN LAKE
LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILITY OF NOT EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE
   PERCENTAGE OF LAKE LEVEL FALLS THAT ARE BELOW THAT LEVEL FOR ALL
    ALL THE YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE
     PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID
      PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

  INTERPRETATION AID...THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS
   LAKE WILL FALL BELOW XXXX.X FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND
    ONLY A 5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL FALL BELOW XXXX.X FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
               FROM JULY 25, 2014 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1452.2 1452.0 1451.9 1451.7 1451.6 1451.5 1451.4
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.2 1452.0 1451.9 1451.7 1451.6 1451.5 1451.4

  THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE WHERE
   THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT LAKE LEVEL
    FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

. OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...

 - BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY...ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
    PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END SEPTEMBER.

 - FOR JUNE AND JULY...BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES
    WILL BE PROVIDED.

 - FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER...ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
    PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.

 - NO PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE/NON-EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION WILL BE
    GIVEN FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...SINCE LAKE FREEZE-UP
     LEVELS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FALL OUTLOOKS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP

THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE VALID PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM 1949 TO 2012 AND
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)... AND SOIL
MOISTURE.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...

  THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

             WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?/WFO=FGF

OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE
LEVELS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. THEY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE BY 10:30 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY ISSUED ON THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER THE 15TH OF THE MONTH...USUALLY
THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720
$$
TEAM FGF
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