Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-281200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1108 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

...MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN...

 * This 90-day outlook covers the period from 1/29/24 to 4/28/24.

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

 * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage...

Major Flooding...

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of major
flooding across the basin.

Moderate Flooding...

   There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of moderate
flooding at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River.

   There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of moderate
flooding at Fargo/Moorhead and Oslo on the Red River.

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of moderate
flooding elsewhere across the basin.

Minor Flooding...

   There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of minor
flooding at Wahpeton, Fargo/Moorhead, and Oslo on the Red River. In
North Dakota, there is a high risk of minor flooding at Abercrombie
on the Wild Rice River. In Minnesota, there is a high risk of minor
flooding at Dilworth on the Buffalo River.

   There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of minor flooding
at Halstad, Grand Forks/East Grand Forks, Drayton, and Pembina on the
Red River. In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of minor flooding
at Mapleton on the Maple River. In Minnesota, there is a medium risk
of minor flooding at Sabin on the South Branch Buffalo River, Hawley
on the Buffalo River, Hendrum on the Wild Rice River, and Hallock on
the Two Rivers River.

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of minor
flooding elsewhere across the basin.


.OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

  Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several
   factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of
    spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are
     discussed below:

 * FALL AND DECEMBER PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE...

   Fall precipitation was below normal for much of the basin while
December brought much above normal precipitation, especially to the
southern half of the basin. Soil moisture remains much lower than
normal across the northern third of the basin with moderate to severe
drought conditions while slightly lower to near average elsewhere.

 * RIVER FLOWS...

   At the end of December, base streamflows were flowing higher than
normal on the Red River mainstem and its tributaries.

 * FROST DEPTHS...

   The recent January cold has allowed for a deeper frost layer to
finally form across much of the basin. The northern half of the area
currently has frost depths of 20 to 30 inches with locations farther
south slightly lower. Lake and river observations indicate ice cover
is thinner and less consistent than normal due to relatively mild
temperatures.

 * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...

   The current snowpack and associated water content is much below
normal. Since December 1, 2023, snowfall has been running roughly 25
to 50 percent of normal across the southern two-thirds of the basin.
Associated water content is minimal, highest near the international
border (up to 1 inch). However, rain/freezing rain from late December
still remains in the soils and on the landscape for runoff into the
river system.

 * RIVER ICE...

   Lake/river observations indicate ice cover is thinner and less
consistent than normal due to relatively mild temperatures over the
course of the winter.

 * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
    - Further snowpack growth,
    - Rate of snowmelt/thaw,
    - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood,
    - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams.

* SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...

  Dry conditions with above to well above normal temperatures are
expected to continue for the end of January and into the first week
of February.

* LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

  Climate outlooks indicate continued above normal temperatures for
the remainder of the winter and into spring. This could allow for
some early melting of the snowpack but also introduce the possibility
of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in late winter and
early spring.

.NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

   The next 2024 spring flood outlook will be issued on Thursday,
February 15, 2024.


.FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...

The following message has two sections: the first gives the
 current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching
  their minor, moderate, and major flood category. The second
   gives the current chances of river locations rising above river
    stages listed.


...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
            Valid from January 29, 2024  to April 28, 2024

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
 probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
 are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on historical, or normal, conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
 exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
 less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
 than normal.


...Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
            Valid from January 29, 2024  to April 28, 2024

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  67  55   22  26    6  14
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  20  24    7  13   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  77   53  35   22  23
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  38  32   14  18    7  11
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  62  55   18  28   <5  10
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  70  61   60  53    9  18
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  45  44   23  30   <5  11
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  50  50   26  39    9  21


                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow through its diversion
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  39  54    9  15   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  35  35   17  22   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  70  63   11  18   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :   6  15   <5   8   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  55  48   11  18   <5   7
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  16  26    7  11    5   6
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  12  23   <5  10   <5   8
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  11   <5   8   <5   6
  CROOKSTON           15.0   20.0   23.0 :  22  46    6  24   <5   8
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  19  22    8  14   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  50  62   19  38   <5  10
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  21   <5  12   <5   8


                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE*        20.0   22.0   28.0 :  88  38   71  34   22  19
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   9   <5   5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  10  15   <5  10   <5   8
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  11   <5   9   <5   8
  HARWOOD             84.0   86.0   91.0 :  24  22   20  18    7   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  33  25    9   8   <5  <5
  MAPLETON            18.0   21.0   23.0 :  54  33   18  14   <5   5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  18  19    6  10   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  15  23    5   7   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  19   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  23   <5  22   <5  19
  *Abercrombie flood stages increased 10.0 ft October 2023

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    FT  =  Feet                   (above gage zero datum)


...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...
            Valid from January 29, 2024  to April 28, 2024

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             9.3    9.9   10.6   11.7   12.7   14.8   15.5
  HICKSON             17.3   18.3   20.3   24.0   27.3   33.1   34.2
  FARGO               18.8   19.9   21.1   25.1   28.9   35.0   36.5
  HALSTAD             13.9   16.1   18.6   23.6   28.9   36.0   38.7
  GRAND FORKS         19.6   21.7   23.9   31.1   36.5   42.5   44.6
  OSLO                16.1   19.6   23.8   31.7   34.0   35.6   36.5
  DRAYTON             17.9   20.8   23.3   30.8   36.6   40.5   41.2
  PEMBINA             23.9   27.4   32.7   39.0   45.3   48.9   50.0


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                9.8   10.2   11.4   12.6   13.4   14.8   16.2
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               5.6    5.9    6.5    7.5    8.4    9.4   10.1
  DILWORTH            10.2   10.6   12.3   15.4   17.8   20.8   23.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          4.2    4.3    4.6    6.3    7.5    8.4   10.4
  HENDRUM             10.5   13.8   16.9   20.8   24.4   28.2   30.9
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               5.9    6.1    7.2    8.8   11.5   15.7   23.1
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               6.8    7.6    8.0   11.6   14.9   22.2   24.8
Red Lake River.....
  HIGH LANDING         2.9    3.2    3.7    4.5    6.0    7.8    8.3
  CROOKSTON            7.5    7.8    9.1   12.0   14.6   17.8   20.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        62.6   62.7   63.2   63.9   64.8   65.4   66.4
  ALVARADO            99.3   99.9  100.7  102.8  105.5  107.4  108.5
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            797.3  798.5  799.7  802.1  805.3  807.0  807.7
Roseau River..... considering the flow through the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               7.3    7.8    8.6   10.1   11.7   13.7   15.7


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE         18.1   19.0   21.5   24.7   27.6   32.4   34.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          6.2    6.4    6.8    8.1   10.0   11.5   13.1
  LISBON               5.4    5.7    6.3    8.0    9.9   11.5   12.9
  KINDRED              7.4    7.9    8.9   10.8   12.5   15.8   18.0
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    10.6   10.8   10.9   12.7   13.0   15.2   17.1
  HARWOOD             74.9   75.6   77.3   80.2   83.8   90.1   91.6
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             5.6    6.2    7.1    8.4   10.0   11.5   12.7
  MAPLETON            12.6   13.0   15.0   18.6   20.6   22.1   22.8
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            3.6    4.0    4.7    5.8    8.2   12.5   13.4
Forest River.....
  MINTO                2.2    2.3    2.8    3.4    4.8    6.7    8.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             3.0    3.3    3.6    4.2    5.5    7.7    8.6
  NECHE                4.8    5.0    5.8    7.4   10.1   15.8   17.9


.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river levels and
 soil conditions using 69 years (1949-2018) of past precipitation
 and temperature conditions that were experienced for those past
 years during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can
 then be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance
 probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest
 ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent of the
 crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook. By providing a range of peak river
 level probabilities, the NWS is contributing to the area`s Decision
 Support Services that help with long-range flood planning and
 response readiness. This outlook is a part of NOAA`s National
 Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services).

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month. However, Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are
 issued several times leading up to the spring melt period, usually
 on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and ending
 in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, along with explanations for interpreting them,
 are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

  then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are also available
  on our website, as well as 7-day forecasts when river levels at
   forecast points are in or near flood.

Additional Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly
 throughout the rest of the year during the later part of the month
  or as conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes Probability of Exceedance levels and
  low-water non-exceedance levels.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$

www.weather.gov/fgf

NNNN





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