Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-
159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-09
5-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
116 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

   THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS
    ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES. IT COVERS THE
     PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 25TH TO MAY 26TH.

...LOW TO MEDIUM RISK OF MAJOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING EXPECTED...

. OUTLOOK SUMMARY...AT THIS TIME...

 * THERE IS A HIGH RISK (BETTER THAN 60%) FOR...

   - MAJOR FLOODING...CURRENTLY NONE. THE RISKS FOR MAJOR FLOODING
      ARE ALL BELOW THE 40TH PECENTILE FOR RIVER FORECAST POINTS
       ON THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH NOR ITS TRIBUTARY STREAMS.

   - MODERATE FLOODING AT...FARGO/MOORHEAD...OSLO AND PEMBINA ON THE
      RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS AT DILWORTH MN ON THE SOUTH
       BRANCH OF THE BUFFALO RIVER AND AT ABERCROMBIE ON THE NORTH
        DAKOTA WILD RICE RIVER.

   - MINOR FLOODING AT...WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE...HALSTAD...GRAND
      FORKS AND DRAYTON ON THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS
       SABIN AND HAWLEY MN ON THE BUFFALO RIVER AND AT HENDRUM ON
        THE MINNESOTA WILD RICE RIVER AND AGAIN AT MINTO ND ON THE
         FOREST RIVER.

 * THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK (BETWEEN 30 AND 60%) FOR...

   - MAJOR FLOODING AT...FARGO/MOORHEAD AND PEMBINA ON THE RED
      RIVER OF THE NORTH AND AT ABERCROMBIE ON THE NORTH DAKOTA
       WILD RICE RIVER.

   - MODERATE FLOODING AT...HALSTAD...GRAND FORKS AND DRAYTON ON THE
      RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS AT SABIN AND HAWLEY MN ON THE
       BUFFALO RIVER AND AT HARWOOD ND ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER.

   - MINOR FLOODING AT...CLIMAX MN ON THE SAND HILL RIVER AS WELL AS
      AT CROOKSTON MN ON THE RED LAKE RIVER AND AT HALLOCK MN ON THE
       TWO RIVERS RIVER AND AT KINDRED...WEST FARGO AND HARWOOD ND
        ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER AND AT ENDERLIN AND MAPLETON ND ON THE
         MAPLE RIVER AND AT GRAFTON ND ON THE PARK RIVER.

 * THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 30%) FOR...

   - MAJOR...MODERATE OR MINOR FLOODING AT...HICKSON ON THE RED
      RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS AT TWIN VALLEY MN ON THE
       MINNESOTA WILD RICE RIVER AND AT SHELLY MN ON THE MARSH RIVER
        AND AT WARREN AND ALVARADO MN ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND AT
         ROSEAU MN ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AND AT VALLEY CITY AND LISBON
          ND ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER AND AT HILLSBORO ND ON THE GOOSE
           RIVER AND WALHALLA AND NECHE ND ON THE PEMBINA RIVER.

. OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...OUR RECENT COLD WEATHER HAS KEPT THE STORM
   TRACKS OF MAJOR SNOW DUMPING STORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND
    ALLOWED US TO STAY ON THE DRY SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
     YEAR. SO...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM
      THE LAST ONE. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS A MONTH OR MORE OF
       WINTER WEATHER BEFORE THE SPRING THAW...THE FLOOD RISK CAN
        CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN DEPENDING ON HOW
         MUCH MORE SNOW WE GET AND HOW WE GET RID OF IT DURING THE
          SPRING MELT SEASON.

  BELOW ARE HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH CAN AFFECT THE
   FACTORS THAT HELP DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF SPRING SNOWMELT
    FLOODING WITHIN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN:

 * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...BASIN AVERAGED IS NEAR LONG TERM NORMALS
   AND RANGES FROM A LOW OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH TO A
    HIGH OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST... HIGHEST
     ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA.
   SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS /SWES/ RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
    SOUTHERN BASIN /SOUTH OF HALSTAD/ WITH SOME BARE SOIL EVIDENT,
     FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL BASIN /HALSTAD TO OSLO/,
      AND FROM 3 TO 4.5 INCHES FOR BASIN AREAS NORTH OF OSLO.

 * SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS...AREA SOILS ARE WETTER THAN
    NORMAL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA...AND
     NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM TWO TO THREE
      FEET ACROSS THE VALLEY.

 * RIVER FLOWS...ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND RIVER
    ICE RANGES FROM A FOOT AND A HALF TO TWO FEET ON THE LARGER
     RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH A DEEPER FREEZE TO THREE FEET ON THE
      SMALLER TRIBUTARY STREAMS.

 * SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN...IS FOR
    BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION
     THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  ESSENTIALLY...THE PREDOMINANT
      WINTERTIME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
       ALOFT AND THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASIN.

 * CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE VALID PERIOD...
    A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS
     EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH AND INTO EARLY APRIL. PRECIPITATION IS
      PREDICTED TO TO BE CLOSE TO MEDIAN RANGES FOR THE LATE WINTER
       AND EARLY SPRING SEASON. WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
        COULD YIELD ABOVE AVERAGE LATE SEASON SNOW FALL.

    BEYOND EARLY TO MID APRIL THE CHANGE OF SEASONS TYPICAL IN THE
     PLAINS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING VARIABILITY AND A HIGHER THAN
      MEDIAN RISK FOR SPRING STORMINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE
       AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SPRING.

. ADDITIONAL COMMENTS...

 * FLOOD FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED ARE GROWTH OF THE SNOWPACK...
    THE RATE OF SNOWMELT... HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW... RATE OF
     GROUND THAW DURING THE FLOOD AND OVERALL SOIL ABSORPTION
      DURING THE SNOW MELT AND SPRING RUNOFF PERIOD. THESE FACTORS
       WILL OFTEN BE MORE INFLUENTIAL THAN CONDITIONS WE HAVE
        EXPERIENCED SO FAR THROUGH MID FEBRUARY.

 * PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)
    OF PAST WEATHER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...FOR THE
     ENSEMBLE OF PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
      PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE OUTLOOK`S
       VALID PERIOD.

 * THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON...
    THE AFTERNOON OF THURSDAY, MARCH 6TH.

. FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...

  THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...

  - THE FIRST TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING
     A FLOOD CATEGORY (MAJOR/MODERATE/MINOR) BASED ON CURRENT
      HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (CS)...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF
       REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL HYDROLOGIC
        CONDITIONS (HS).

  - THE SECOND TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING
     ABOVE THE LISTED RIVER STAGES BASED CURRENT HYDROLOGIC
      CONDITIONS.


...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBAILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

            VALID FROM FEBRUARY 25, 2014  TO MAY 26, 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABIITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING TAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERAGE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                VALID PERIOD:   2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                         : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         :  CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                         :    FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                         :   AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  73  50   27  23   10  10
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  29  20    6  10   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  70   81  36   40  21
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  70  32   32  16   <5   7
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  93  55   40  32   <5  10
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 : >95  61   92  52   13  18
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  81  43   55  33   <5  12
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  92  49   67  43   32  21
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  SABIN               12.0   15.0   19.0 : >95  66   36  13   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               7.0    9.0   11.0 : >95  50   41  26   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            12.0   20.0   26.0 : >95  69   60  18   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :   6  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  83  49   26  21   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  20  30    6   7   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  33  23    7   9   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  13  29    7  24   <5  20
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  47  49   <5  15   <5   9
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   76.0 :   7  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  18  23    7  12   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  58  56   18  36   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  21  18   <5  10   <5  10
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  92  41   83  33   35  18
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :   6  15   <5   9   <5   7
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :   9  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  30  23   13  12    7   7
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  47  26   24  18   15  12
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  41  23   30  20    9  10
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  35  23    6   9   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :  52  29   13  13   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  18  15    9   9   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  67  30   15  10   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  46  18   23  <5    9  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  15  18   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  26  24   20  21   13  13

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( "       "  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
    FT  =  FEET                   (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)



...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

            VALID FROM FEBRUARY 25, 2014  TO MAY 26, 2014

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
  PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
  VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATION LISTED.

  EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
  FOR THE VALID PERIOD...THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED
  RIVER AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 11.7 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT
  CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 15.1 FEET.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                   AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                           VALID PERIOD:   2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON             9.9   10.5   11.0   11.7   13.3   15.1   15.7
  HICKSON             21.1   22.5   24.9   27.2   30.7   33.7   34.8
  FARGO               22.0   23.7   26.4   28.6   32.7   34.3   36.2
  HALSTAD             21.1   21.9   25.8   29.1   33.1   36.5   37.9
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   30.7   33.9   38.3   41.9   44.5   47.8
  OSLO                28.6   31.3   33.2   34.4   35.4   36.4   37.9
  DRAYTON             27.6   30.4   33.2   38.7   40.6   41.1   42.7
  PEMBINA             37.4   39.6   42.1   46.9   49.5   50.7   52.1


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
  SABIN               13.5   13.8   14.1   14.7   15.5   16.1   17.4
BUFFALO RIVER.....
  HAWLEY               7.1    7.3    7.7    8.5    9.6   10.1   10.7
  DILWORTH            17.5   17.9   19.1   20.7   21.9   22.9   24.1
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  TWIN VALLEY          5.6    5.7    6.2    7.0    7.8    9.8   10.5
  HENDRUM             18.0   18.7   21.3   25.0   28.4   29.8   31.1
MARSH RIVER.....
  SHELLY               7.6    7.8    8.5   10.2   13.2   19.3   20.5
SAND HILL RIVER.....
  CLIMAX              11.4   11.7   12.1   16.2   20.9   24.0   28.6
RED LAKE RIVER.....
  HIGH LANDING         9.2    9.5    9.9   10.5   11.4   12.4   13.0
  CROOKSTON           10.8   11.7   12.8   14.7   18.0   20.4   22.0
SNAKE RIVER.....
  ABOVE WARREN        63.0   63.1   63.6   64.4   65.2   66.6   69.6
  ALVARADO           100.1  100.3  101.3  103.6  104.8  107.5  108.8
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
  HALLOCK            798.6  798.9  800.1  802.4  804.9  807.5  807.9
ROSEAU RIVER.....
  ROSEAU              11.2   11.6   12.4   13.8   15.4   17.4   17.7


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  ABERCROMBIE          9.1   11.6   14.0   16.6   19.1   21.1   22.8
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
  VALLEY CITY          8.8    9.2   10.2   11.5   12.3   13.7   15.8
  LISBON               8.6    9.1   10.2   11.5   12.7   15.0   18.9
  KINDRED             11.1   12.0   13.3   14.5   16.9   20.2   21.0
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    14.8   15.6   16.4   17.4   20.1   22.8   23.2
  HARWOOD            878.2  879.2  880.8  883.2  888.5  891.2  892.0
MAPLE RIVER.....
  ENDERLIN             7.0    7.2    8.2    8.9   10.3   11.3   12.7
  MAPLETON           901.6  902.4  903.6  905.1  907.0  908.6  909.0
GOOSE RIVER.....
  HILLSBORO            4.7    5.0    5.8    7.2    9.1   13.0   15.1
FOREST RIVER.....
  MINTO                4.0    4.9    5.8    6.5    7.6    8.5    8.7
PARK RIVER.....
  GRAFTON             10.5   10.8   11.1   12.0   13.4   14.5   15.6
PEMBINA RIVER.....
  WALHALLA             5.6    6.1    7.1    8.4   10.1   12.7   13.4
  NECHE                9.3   10.2   12.2   15.3   18.4   21.2   21.3


.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2012.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF

  THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS"ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
  ...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

A NEW...POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:

   WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP (USE LOWER CASE)

ALSO...7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
$$
TEAM FGF
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