Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This Outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

         Valid from March 06, 2016 to June 04, 2016

...RISK OF FLOODING HEADLINE...

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

 * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage...

    - For the main-stem Red...there is a high chance (greater than
       60%) of minor flooding at Fargo and a fair chance (30 to 60%)
        of minor flooding at Wahpeton...Grand Forks...and Oslo.

    - For the Minnesota tributaries...there is a fair chance of
       moderate flooding at High Landing on the Red Lake River and
        a high chance of minor flooding at Hallock on the Two Rivers
         River. There is a fair chance of minor flooding at Sabin
          and Dilworth along the Buffalo River and at High Landing.

    - For the North Dakota tributaries...there is a low chance (less
       than 30%) of exceeding minor flooding.

 * This 90-day Outlook...
       covers the period from March 06, 2016 to June 04, 2016

.OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

  Hydrologic and Climate conditions which affect each of the several
   factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of
    spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are
     discussed below:

 * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...

    - The snowpack in the Red River of the North and Devils Lake
       Basins is virtually gone from points within and south of the
        Sheyenne River Basin...up through the North Dakota
         tributaries of the Red River to Grafton...and across to
          the Minnesota tributaries south from East Grand Forks and
           Crookston...to include most all of the Minnesota
            tributaries below Ada...Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls.

    - Snow depths taper up from an inch or two on the southern edge
       of the snow pack to nearly a foot up north around Langdon ND
        and the Roseau and Lake of the Woods drainages in Minnesota.

    - Water equivalent contained in the snow (SWE) ranges from trace
       amounts up to two inches within heavier snow pack.

    - The predominantly warmer-than-normal winter weather and
       less-than-normal snow...most likely influenced by the strong
        El Nino climate pattern...have combined to quickly erode our
         lack-luster snow pack and diminish the effects of snowmelt
          on our overall spring flood risk.

    - However, heavy spring rains occurring the frozen soil thaws
       will still be a localized flood risk possibility.

 * SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS...

    - Frost depths are shallower than normal for this time of the
       year. They range from a foot and a half to three feet around
        the basin.

    - Soil moisture levels have remained near long term averages
       throughout the winter. Soil moisture will likely increase
         with expected near normal spring rains.

 * RIVER FLOWS AND RIVER ICE..

     - Base flows on the Red River of the North are near normal
        (25th to 75th percentile) for this time of the year.

     - River Ice is less than expected for this time of the year
        on the rivers and streams in the Red River basin.

 * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
    - Further snowpack growth... which should be minimal.
    - Rate of snowmelt/thaw... which should be early and minimal.
    - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood.
    - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams.

 * SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...

    - This weekend and into next week will bring above normal
       temperatures with chances for periodic episodes of light snow
        or rain every other day with an isolated thunderstorm
         possible early next week. See www.weather.gov/fgf for the
          most up-to-date weather forecast.

    - The 8 to 14 day forecast calls for significantly warmer than
       normal temperatures for mid-March and for normal March
        precipitation.

* SPRING FLOOD SEASON CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

    - NOAA Climate Prediction Center`s temperature projection for
       March has us in a 60% chance for warmer than normal
        conditions. As for precipitation, they project equal chances
         of wet, dry and normal conditions. See CPC web URL at
          www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for details.

    - The seasonal (Mar/Apr/May) projections are for a 50% chance for
       warmer than normal temperatures during these three months and
        near normal precipitation overall...with an increased risk
         for slighty drier than normal conditions across the far
          eastern edges of the Roseau and Red Lake River Basins in
           north central Minnesota.

.NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

    - May be issued at the end of March depending on the river
       conditions at that time.

.FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...

The following message has two sections..the first gives the
 current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching
  their Minor...Moderate...and Major Flood Category...the second
   gives the current chances of river locations rising above river
    stages listed.

...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...

             Valid from March 06, 2016  to June 04, 2016

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
 probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
 are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
 exceeding tat level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
 less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
 than normal


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
               Valid Period:   03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  36  55   11  26   <5  14
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   9  23   <5  13   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  64  76   13  38    8  23
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  10  34   <5  19   <5   9
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  36  60    7  34   <5  10
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  38  64   27  56   <5  21
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  18  50    9  38   <5  11
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  24  56   15  43    5  22
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  35  50    5  15   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  11  38    6  25   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  53  67   <5  21   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5  18   <5   6   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  32  55   <5  23   <5   6
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  31   <5  11   <5   6
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  24   <5  11   <5   7
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  55  46   37  43   20  33
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  27  53   <5  13   <5   8
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5  14   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :   9  21   <5  16   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  77  61   15  42   <5  10
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  19   <5   5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  17  37   14  36   <5  20
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  10   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  11   <5   9   <5   6
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :   6  20   <5  12   <5   9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :   8  24   <5  18   <5  13
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :   8  24    7  21   <5  11
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :   9  21   <5  10   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :  16  33    5  14   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :   5  17   <5  10   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  13  26   <5   8   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  13  19   <5   6   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  19   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :   9  28    5  26   <5  19

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    FT  =  Feet                   (above gage zero datum)



...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...

             Valid from March 06, 2016  to June 04, 2016

.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  03/06/2016 to 06/04/2016

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 10.0 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 13.1 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             7.5    7.5    8.6   10.0   11.5   13.1   13.7
  HICKSON             14.6   14.7   17.0   19.7   24.4   28.6   31.6
  FARGO               16.6   16.7   17.3   19.2   22.7   27.2   31.6
  HALSTAD             12.9   13.2   13.6   17.0   21.5   26.0   30.7
  GRAND FORKS         20.3   20.6   20.9   24.5   30.1   38.4   41.9
  OSLO                17.7   18.4   19.2   24.2   30.2   34.3   35.4
  DRAYTON             19.1   19.4   20.4   24.0   29.3   37.2   40.5
  PEMBINA             25.8   26.6   29.0   33.5   38.8   45.5   49.0


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN               11.0   11.2   11.5   12.5   13.4   14.3   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               4.4    4.5    4.8    5.6    6.9    8.2    9.2
  DILWORTH             9.9   10.3   10.7   13.5   15.6   18.8   19.5
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          4.4    4.5    4.8    5.7    6.8    8.9    9.7
  HENDRUM             12.8   13.4   14.4   17.2   20.7   25.8   26.9
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               7.0    7.2    7.5    8.2    9.3   11.1   13.4
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               7.5    7.6    7.7    8.8   11.5   15.4   16.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING        10.6   10.7   11.5   12.3   12.9   13.1   13.2
  CROOKSTON            9.0    9.1    9.9   12.1   15.4   19.8   21.7
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        62.0   62.0   62.2   62.9   64.0   65.5   66.5
  ALVARADO            97.8   98.0   98.6  100.5  104.4  105.8  107.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            799.8  801.2  802.1  803.3  805.0  807.5  808.0
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion.
  ROSEAU               8.9    9.3   10.0   10.9   12.1   14.2   15.1


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          2.2    2.3    3.0    4.7    8.5   15.4   17.1
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.2    5.3    5.5    6.5    8.0   10.7   11.5
  LISBON               4.1    4.1    4.4    5.6    7.5   10.4   12.2
  KINDRED              5.5    5.5    5.5    7.0    9.5   13.0   16.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    11.8   11.8   11.9   12.5   14.3   16.2   19.3
  HARWOOD            873.3  873.4  873.5  875.2  878.1  880.8  888.6
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             4.6    4.7    5.1    6.2    7.7    9.1   10.7
  MAPLETON           898.2  898.4  898.7  900.2  903.8  906.5  908.0
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            3.1    3.2    3.3    4.0    5.2    6.8   11.0
Forest River.....
  MINTO                2.8    3.0    3.6    4.0    4.8    6.3    6.9
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              8.9    9.1    9.5    9.9   11.2   12.3   12.6
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             4.0    4.4    5.0    5.8    7.2    9.6   10.6
  NECHE                6.7    7.3    8.5    9.8   12.5   17.9   19.2


.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month. However...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are
 issued seveal times during the critical spring melt period...
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April...depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs...together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the Internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks OR weather.gov/fgf

  Then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
  available on our web site...as well as the 7-day forecasts when
   the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions...contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

Also...7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be in flood during that
  period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
  conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes Probability of Exceedance levels and
  low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$

www.weather.gov/fgf

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