Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014


...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

IN GENERAL...THE SPRING THAW SEEMS TO BE STUCK IN FIRST GEAR...IF NOT
REVERSE! THERE HAVE BEEN NO BIG CHANGES IN THE BASIN SNOWPACK SINCE
THE LAST SPRING THAW PROGRESS OUTLOOK...SO THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A
RECAP FROM LAST WEEK. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST
WEEK WAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER BASIN LAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TURNED OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 4 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING...AND WITH SNOW-WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
ONE QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.

ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW PACK DID CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RIPEN AND ERODE WITH THE EVER INCREASING LONGER DAYS AND HIGHER
SOLAR ANGLE...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT STATUS OF BASIN SNOWPACK:

- HEADWATERS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF RED RIVER VALLEY.
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW COVER AND THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
STARTING TO WARM THE SOIL...THE FROST MAY BE SLOWLY STARTING TO
COME OUT OF THE SOIL NEAR ITS SURFACE LAYER. SMALLER STREAMS
ARE SHOWING SOME STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER FLOW...DITCHES ARE
LARGELY SNOW FREE AND CULVERTS ARE MAINLY OPENED. WHEREAS THE LARGER
TRIBUTARIES AND MAINSTEM RED RIVER DID GAIN SOME WATER
FROM NEAR STREAM SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL NOT
SHOWING LARGE SCALE ICE BREAKUP OR OPEN FLOW.

- NORTHERN HALF OF RED RIVER VALLEY.
NORTH AND EAST FROM GRAND FORKS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE SNOWCOVER
MARKEDLY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WITH LAST WEEKS SNOWFALL...WHILE
MODERATE SNOWPACK PERSISTS IN DITCHES AND FIELD SHELTERBELTS.
NORTH AND EAST FROM OSLO IS NOW SHOWING NEARLY CONTINUOUS SNOWPACK
AND SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK IN DITCHES AND SHELTERBELTS.
STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL ICE AND SNOW COVERED WITH LITTLE OR NO
MELT WATER SHOWING IN THEIR CHANNELS OR IN CONTRIBUTING DITCHES. THE
UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN REMAINS MOSTLY SNOW COVERED WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

WEATHER FORECAST FOR MARCH 28TH...AND THE WEEK BEYOND:
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO ROLLER-COASTER WITH AN OVERALL BELOW NORMAL
SIDE TO THE TRACK. THE ONLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK A FEW DEGREES DURING THE COMING WEEK. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE COMING WORK WEEK. ACCUMULATED
WATER CONTENT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK COULD APPROACH ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PLACES... STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SO...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE...AND
WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A CONTINUED SLOW/DELAYED THAW CYCLE...THE
CONDITIONAL RISKS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING ARE CONSIDERED WELL
WITHIN THE PROBABILISTIC VALUES RELEASED ON MARCH 6TH...AND VERY NEAR
HISTORICAL NORMALS. THUS...

     NO UPDATES TO THE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS
     ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ACTUAL 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC
     FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVER LOCATIONS WILL BE ISSUED
     ONCE THE SNOWMELT THAW CYCLE BEGINS IN EARNEST AND WE
     EXPECT A RIVER FORECAST LOCATION TO BE IN FLOOD WITHIN
     THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE REMEMBER:

 * ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING BREAKUP ESPECIALLY IN TIGHT
    RIVER BENDS, UPSTREAM OF BRIDGES, OR NEAR RIVER CONFLUENCES. THEY
     CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY WITH FLOODWATER BACKING-UP UPSTREAM
      AND...ONCE THE WATER IN BACK OF THE JAM GETS HIGH ENOUGH TO
       BREAK THE ICE JAM...CAN RELEASE THE WATER SO THAT THE
        DOWNSTREAM REACH OF THE RIVER WILL HAVE FLOOD DAMAGE. IF YOU
         ARE AWARE OF ANY ICE JAMMING...PLEASE REPORT THIS TO LOCAL
          LAW ENFORCEMENT SO THEY CAN RELAY IT TO US OR DIRECTLY TO
           OUR NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT 1.800.667.1218. OR ON
            OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER AT #RRNFLOOD2014.

 * AS IT GETS LATER INTO THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON...THE NATIONAL
    WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
     WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND WILL UPDATE THESE SPRING THAW
      PROGRESS REPORTS PERIODICALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS WE
       SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING OR UNTIL THE SNOWPACK MELTS.

 * FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS 7-DAY RIVER FORECASTS
    WILL BE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
     OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 7-DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER
STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF
6 HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS
AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE
LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.



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TEAM FGF






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