Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...Two Rounds of Thunderstorms are expected over the Dakotas and
Minnesota over the Next Two Days...

Round One: The first round of storms is expected to initiate over
the western Dakotas later this evening. These storms will track to
the east overnight, affecting portions of eastern North Dakota and
the northwest quarter of Minnesota during the overnight period. Some
of these storms may be severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Round Two: Thunderstorms tonight will set the stage for potential
flash flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night. Areas that receive
heavy rain tonight /round one/ will be more susceptible to flooding
issues during this period. Current forecast guidance suggests that a
warm front will set up along and south of the Interstate 94 corridor
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Along and north of this boundary,
thunderstorms may develop and then redevelop, producing multiple
overlying heavy rainfall and severe weather events.

Confidence is high that heavy rain will occur across portions of the
area tonight through Wednesday evening, though specific locations
are not yet certain. Confidence will improve once initial rainfall
totals from tonight are analyzed. If these first round rainfall
totals line up with the forecast for heavy rain during round two,
then flooding is more likely to occur in those areas.

Please pay attention to future statements, watches and warnings
which will seek to address these respective threat areas.

$$



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