Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
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Probabalistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0310 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017

...MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

 * This 120-day Outlook covers the period from...
                          January 29, 2017 to April 29, 2017.

. OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

 * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage...

 Major Flooding...

   A high risk (greater than 65%) of Major Flooding is expected at
Pembina ND on the Red River, Grafton ND on the Park River, and Neche
ND on the Pembina river.

   A medium risk (35 to 65%) of Major Flooding is expected at
Fargo/Moorhead and Oslo MN on the Red River, High Landing MN on the
Red Lake River, and on the West Fargo Diversion in North Dakota.

 Moderate Flooding...

  A high risk of Moderate Flooding is expected at Fargo/Moorhead,
Grand Forks, Oslo, Drayton and Pembina on the Red River...In
Minnesota, at Dilworth on the Buffalo River, High Landing on the Red
Lake River, and at Hallock on the Two Rivers River...In North
Dakota, at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River, on the West Fargo
Diversion, at Grafton on the Park River, and at Neche on the Pembina
River.

  A medium risk of Moderate Flooding is expected at Wahpeton and
Halstad on the Red River...In Minnesota, at Sabin and Hawley on the
Buffalo River, at Hendrum on the Wild Rice River, and Alvarado on the
Snake River...In North Dakota, at Kindred and Harwood on the Sheyenne
River, at Hillsboro on the Goose River, and at Minto on the Forest
River.

 Minor Flooding...

  A low risk (less than 35%) risk of Minor Flooding at Twin Valley
MN on the Wild Rice River, at Warren MN on the Snake River, and at
Roseau on the Roseau River. Otherwise there is a high to medium risk
of Minor Flooding for the rest of the forecast locations in the Red
River basin.

. OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

  Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several
   factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of
    spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are
     discussed below:

 * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...

   Accumulated winter precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) thus far
was about twice normal for most of the basin leaving two to three
inches of water equivalent in the snowpack north of Fargo. Some of
the snow water from the recent thaw in the southern part of the basin
went into the soil while some did make it into the rivers and
streams.

 * SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS...

   Soil moisture ranges from near normal for most of the Red River
Valley to above normal in the northern third. Frost depths range from
one to two feet, deeper where snowpack is thin.

 * RIVER FLOWS...

   For the few river flow sampling sites in the Red River basin, the
flows are characterized as much above normal by the USGS.

 * RIVER ICE...

   Most of the rivers and streams are still ice covered.

 * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
    - Further snowpack growth,
    - Rate of snowmelt/thaw,
    - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood,
    - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams.


. NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS...

   This is the first of the monthly AHPS Hydrologic Probabalistic
Outlooks that covers Spring Snowmelt flooding for this year. The next
outlooks are scheduled to be issued on Thursday, 16 February 2017 and
Thursday, 02 March 2017.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
            Valid from January 29, 2017 to April 29, 2017.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
               Valid Period:   01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  92  48   39  22   15  11
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  40  18   12  10   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  73   85  32   49  20
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  85  31   39  15   10   8
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 : >95  56   74  31   20   9
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 : >95  62  >95  54   44  19
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 : >95  48   91  31   34   9
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 : >95  56  >95  40   84  22
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 : >95  41   53  13   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  88  32   55  22   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 : >95  61   69  16   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  21  15    5   6   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  93  48   41  17    7   6
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  48  30    5  11   <5   6
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  45  23   23   9    5   7
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  82  43   77  40   60  33
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  87  49   11  14    6   7
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  24  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  83  17   56  14    6  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 : >95  63   88  42   15  15
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  27  19   <5   5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  88  32   84  30   33  18
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  42   8   33  <5   27  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  40   8   25   6   13  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  89  15   45   8   17   7
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  91  18   67  13   40   9
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  68  20   54  17   14   8
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  82  18   24   7   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :  82  28   28  11   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  88  17   63  10    8  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 : >95  25   57   8   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 : >95  16   92   6   81  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 : >95  16    9  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 : >95  22  >95  20   82  17

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  01/29/2017 to 04/29/2017

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 12.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 16.0 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            10.4   11.2   11.5   12.4   14.1   16.0   17.1
  HICKSON             21.7   23.9   26.1   27.7   32.1   34.9   36.1
  FARGO               21.0   23.5   26.4   29.6   32.9   36.4   38.2
  HALSTAD             20.1   24.0   27.1   31.0   35.6   37.5   39.0
  GRAND FORKS         33.1   35.7   39.7   43.0   45.1   47.5   49.4
  OSLO                33.0   33.9   34.8   35.9   36.9   37.7   38.6
  DRAYTON             35.6   38.2   40.4   41.3   42.6   43.3   43.8
  PEMBINA             46.3   47.7   50.0   51.3   52.9   53.6   53.8


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN               13.2   13.7   14.6   15.2   15.9   16.8   18.4
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               7.5    7.9    8.6    9.2    9.9   10.4   11.0
  DILWORTH            16.4   18.0   19.6   21.0   22.2   23.0   24.8
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          6.3    6.6    7.1    8.6    9.7   11.0   12.1
  HENDRUM             19.8   21.1   24.0   27.3   29.6   31.2   32.5
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY              10.0   10.6   12.2   13.8   16.6   18.6   20.1
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX              11.8   12.1   15.8   19.9   24.8   26.8   30.5
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING        10.0   10.7   12.6   13.1   13.3   13.3   13.6
  CROOKSTON           13.6   14.5   16.4   19.2   21.7   23.2   25.1
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        64.7   64.8   65.0   65.9   66.9   68.2   68.5
  ALVARADO           105.2  105.5  106.5  108.6  109.4  109.8  110.3
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            805.4  805.9  807.5  808.2  809.2  810.3  811.0
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU              11.7   12.3   13.3   14.7   16.1   17.0   17.4


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          7.1    9.6   13.0   16.3   19.4   22.9   24.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY         12.2   12.7   13.5   14.2   17.5   19.5   20.7
  LISBON              12.0   12.4   13.2   14.3   17.1   19.5   20.4
  KINDRED             15.1   15.7   17.1   18.4   20.3   21.1   21.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    17.7   18.3   18.9   20.5   22.7   23.1   23.2
  HARWOOD            879.7  881.2  883.2  887.5  890.2  891.6  892.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             8.4    9.0   10.0   10.8   12.0   12.9   13.9
  MAPLETON           902.1  904.3  905.7  906.7  908.1  908.7  909.3
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            8.2    9.5   12.0   13.6   14.5   15.9   16.4
Forest River.....
  MINTO                6.5    6.7    7.4    8.1    9.0    9.6    9.9
Park River.....
  GRAFTON             12.8   13.7   14.7   16.2   17.8   18.8   20.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA            11.0   11.3   12.5   13.6   15.1   15.8   16.4
  NECHE               19.8   20.0   21.1   21.4   21.5   21.6   21.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                    from  01/29/2017 to 04/29/2017

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 4.3 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 4.1 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    4.7    4.7    4.3    4.1    4.1    4.1
  HICKSON             11.1   11.0   10.9   10.6   10.4   10.4   10.4
  FARGO               14.8   14.7   14.7   14.6   14.3   14.3   14.3
  HALSTAD              5.4    4.9    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2
  GRAND FORKS         17.0   16.9   16.7   16.7   15.8   15.5   15.5
  OSLO                 9.1    9.1    8.7    8.7    7.0    6.4    6.3
  DRAYTON             12.7   12.7   12.7   12.7   12.1   11.5   11.4
  PEMBINA             11.9   11.9   11.9   11.9   10.3    8.2    8.1


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  DILWORTH             3.8    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9
  HENDRUM              1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         4.9    3.8    2.6    1.2    0.4    0.4    0.4
  CROOKSTON            7.1    7.1    6.6    5.0    3.5    3.2    3.2
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.7   60.7   60.7   60.7   60.7   60.6   60.6
  ALVARADO            96.4   96.4   96.3   96.3   96.3   96.2   96.2
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.3  793.3  793.3  793.2  793.2  793.2
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.5    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2    0.2
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.5
  LISBON               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.5
  KINDRED              2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7
  HARWOOD            867.2  867.2  867.2  867.2  867.2  867.2  867.2
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
  MAPLETON           894.6  894.6  894.5  894.5  894.5  894.5  894.5
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.7
  NECHE                2.7    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN



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