Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

...2ND SPRING 2016 THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...SPRING GROUND THAW WELL UNDERWAY...
                       ...AND AREA RIVERS ARE STARTING TO OPEN...

 * RUNOFF POTENTIAL...GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR EXCESSIVE
  PRECIPITATION TO RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS WILL BE AREAS OF THE
  HEADWATERS OF THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES WHERE AROUND AN
  INCH OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW IS FORECAST. SOILS WILL ALLOW SOME
  INFILTRATION OF RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LAYER OF THE SOIL IS FROST
  FREE.

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...

 * IN GENERAL...THE SNOWPACK IS ESSENTIALLY GONE WITH A WEAK
   FROST LAYER QUICKLY THINNING UNDER IDEAL SOIL WARMING
   CONDITIONS OF PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND RECORD TEMPERATURES OVER
   THE PAST WEEK. AREAS WITH SOME FROST DEPTH REMAINING ARE FROM
   THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD. THAW DEPTH AT GRAND
   FORKS IS DOWN TO THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH A FROST DEPTH
   AROUND 30 INCHES AND AREAS TO THE NORTH SEEING THICKER FROST
   DEPTH AND LESS THAW DEPTH.

 * WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

 - TEMPERATURES...DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
   EXPANDING THE THAW DEPTH. HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
   WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

 - PRECIPITATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER
   OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
   THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL A RAIN
   SNOW MIX. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
   QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
   OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
   WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER AMOUNTS...IN THE TENTH TO A QUARTER
   INCH RANGE. THE RAIN AREA IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
   RED RIVER MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY HEADWATERS AREAS AND OVER THE
   MISSISSIPPI BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND TURN INTO A RAIN SNOW MIX
   FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 1.5
   INCH RANGE.

 * ACTUAL 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVER LOCATIONS
   WILL BE ISSUED IF AND WHEN THOSE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   REACH FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

.PLEASE REMEMBER:

 THE 7-DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER
 STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF
 6-HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7
 DAYS. THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS
 GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE
 LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

 IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

$$


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