Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-
159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-
095-097-099-071200-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

RECENT STORM TOTALS:

THE MARCH 31ST BLIZZARD PRODUCED FROM 1 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW AND
FROM 2 TENTHS TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS /SWE/ TO
THE RED RIVER BASIN AND ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF SWE TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. AT LEAST THREE BANDS OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS RANGED ACROSS THE BASIN FROM LATE FORENOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO PERIODS OF EITHER HEAVIER
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL.

THE HEAVIER SNOWS OF 14 TO 20 INCHES FELL IN A BAND FROM VALLEY
CITY...TO COOPERSTOWN...TO LANKIN...TO GRAFTON NORTH DAKOTA AND
THEN BROADLY ON TO ARGYLE...KARLSTAD...THIEF RIVER FALLS...ROSEAU
...WARROAD AND BAUDETTE IN MINNESOTA.

POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FROM HILLSBORO AND HALSTAD...THROUGH THE
PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI AREA...RECEIVED LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
...AS WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE LED TO EARLY PERIODS OF RAIN...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WATER CONTENT AVERAGED AROUND ONE HALF
INCH THROUGH THIS BAND.

WATER CONTENT IN RAIN AND SNOW RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...SOUTH OF FARGO
AND MOORHEAD.

APRIL 3RD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM TRACE TO 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN...IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
...LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET.

TOTAL MOISTURE RECEIVED THROUGH THE MONTH OF MARCH WAS NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...AND GENERALLY
BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CURRENT STATUS OF THE BASIN SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL RUNOFF:

- SOUTHERN THIRD OF RED RIVER BASIN INTO FARGO/MOORHEAD...
AS OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE
SNOWPACK AND VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS.

- MIDDLE THIRD OF RED RIVER BASIN BASIN INTO GRAND FORKS/EAST
GRAND FORKS...
RECENT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND RED LAKE BASIN
...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLIGHT RECHARGE OF SNOWPACK...WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. RUNOFF
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE WELL WITHIN THE PROBABILISTIC
DISTRIBUTION RELEASED IN EARLY MARCH...WITH AN EXPRESSED RISK
OF MINOR TO MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING.

- NORTHERN THIRD OF RED RIVER BASIN INTO PEMBINA/ST.VINCENT...
RECENT MOISTURE AND OVERALL EXTENSIVE WINTERTIME SNOWPACK IS
NOW RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE LONG TERM NORMALS. THOUGH RUNOFF
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE PROBABILISTIC
DISTRIBUTION RELEASED IN EARLY MARCH...THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK
FOR THESE MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES HAS LIKELY
SHIFTED MORE TOWARDS THE MODERATE RANGE THAN MINOR.

  * THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL THROUGH THE SPRING THAW CYCLE COULD
PRODUCE SOME LARGER AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  * THE AGGREGATE RUNOFF POTENTIAL ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER
FROM OSLO TO PEMBINA SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE PROBABILISTIC
DISTRIBUTION RELEASED IN EARLY MARCH...AS SOUTH BASIN
CONTRIBUTIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESSENED.

WEATHER FORECAST FOR APRIL 4TH...AND THE WEEK BEYOND:

SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER /APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS/ AND MUCH
MORE HUMID.

MOST ALL OF THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS SHOULD SEE
ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EVERY DAY FROM NOW THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS ALSO SEEING NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MUCH MORE RAPID SNOWMELT OCCURRING. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZE/THAW POINT.

WITH THAT...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE RAPIDLY RIPENING
SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE...AND WITH EXPECTATIONS OF PERSISTENT THAW
CONDITIONS FROM NOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WE CAN EXPECT TO
SEE DITCHES...STREAMS AND RIVERS RESPONDING.

AS EXPECTED...HIGHER SNOWPACK LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
BASIN WILL SEE SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER OVERALL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF
PROCESSES EXTENDING WELL PAST MID APRIL.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SPRING PERIOD CLIMATE OUTLOOK
STILL CALL FOR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF APRIL.

NEXT WEEK...ACTUAL 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVER
LOCATIONS WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE SNOWMELT THAW CYCLE BEGINS IN
EARNEST AND IT BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR A RIVER FORECAST LOCATION TO
BE IN FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE REMEMBER:

 * ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING BREAKUP ESPECIALLY IN TIGHT
    RIVER BENDS, UPSTREAM OF BRIDGES, OR NEAR RIVER CONFLUENCES. THEY
     CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY WITH FLOODWATER BACKING-UP UPSTREAM
      AND...ONCE THE WATER IN BACK OF THE JAM GETS HIGH ENOUGH TO
       BREAK THE ICE JAM...CAN RELEASE THE WATER SO THAT THE
        DOWNSTREAM REACH OF THE RIVER WILL HAVE FLOOD DAMAGE. IF YOU
         ARE AWARE OF ANY ICE JAMMING...PLEASE REPORT THIS TO LOCAL
          LAW ENFORCEMENT SO THEY CAN RELAY IT TO US OR DIRECTLY TO
           OUR NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT 1.800.667.1218. OR ON
            OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER AT #RRNFLOOD2014.

 * FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS 7-DAY RIVER FORECASTS
    WILL BE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
     OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 7-DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER
STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF
6 HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS
AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE
LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

$$
TEAM FGF






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