Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
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067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
         AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.

         THE DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK IS BELOW THE RED RIVER
         OUTLOOK.

  PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)
    OF PAST WEATHER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...FOR THE
    ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
    PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD
    OF THE OUTLOOK.

  THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...

  - THE FIRST GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF
    RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD
    CATEGORY.

  - THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING
    ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED.

...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBAILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

             VALID FROM MAY 26, 2014  TO AUGUST 24, 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
  PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
  STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

  - CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
    BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

  - HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABIITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
    BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

  - WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
    EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS
    IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
    LOWER THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                VALID PERIOD:   5/26/2014 - 8/24/2014

                                         : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         :  CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                         :    FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                         :   AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  56  46   33  18   <5  <5
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  13   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  72  53   23   7    6  <5
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  13   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  30  21    6   6   <5  <5
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  33  30   24  18   <5  <5
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  13   9   <5   6   <5  <5
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  20  18   10  10   <5  <5
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  SABIN               12.0   15.0   19.0 :  44  33   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               7.0    9.0   11.0 :  20  15    9   9   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            12.0   20.0   26.0 :  46  36    7   6   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :   7  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  27  21    7  <5   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :   9   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  23  24   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   76.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  10  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  32  26   12   6   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  18  10   12   6   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :   9   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  10   6    7  <5   <5  <5
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :   7   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :  10  10    6  <5   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  10  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :   7  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5   6   <5   6   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( "       "  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
    FT  =  FEET                   (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)



...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

             VALID FROM MAY 26, 2014  TO AUGUST 24, 2014

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
  PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
  VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATION LISTED.

  EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
  FOR THE VALID PERIOD...THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED
  RIVER AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE XX.X FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT
  CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE XX.X FEET.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                   AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                           VALID PERIOD:   5/26/2014 - 8/24/2014


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
  WAHPETON             8.7    8.7    9.1   11.8   13.4   14.3   14.5
  HICKSON             16.3   16.3   18.6   22.9   28.0   31.6   32.6
  FARGO               17.3   17.3   17.9   20.4   23.9   29.2   32.5
  HALSTAD             13.2   13.2   13.2   16.4   20.1   26.5   28.4
  GRAND FORKS         20.2   20.2   20.2   22.0   29.5   36.6   41.9
  OSLO                18.4   18.4   18.4   20.8   30.1   33.9   35.3
  DRAYTON             19.7   19.7   19.7   20.6   29.2   34.0   38.9
  PEMBINA             28.5   28.5   28.5   28.5   37.5   44.8   46.5


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
  SABIN                7.3    7.3    8.5   11.8   13.4   14.1   15.0
BUFFALO RIVER.....
  HAWLEY               4.2    4.3    4.6    5.3    6.8    9.0   10.5
  DILWORTH             6.7    6.7    7.6   11.9   16.2   19.7   21.7
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  TWIN VALLEY          3.2    3.2    3.5    4.6    6.9    9.4   11.2
  HENDRUM              8.9    8.9   10.7   14.2   20.8   24.1   31.1
MARSH RIVER.....
  SHELLY               4.9    4.9    5.2    7.5   11.6   14.5   15.5
SAND HILL RIVER.....
  CLIMAX               5.6    5.8    6.4    7.9   10.9   16.5   20.8
RED LAKE RIVER.....
  HIGH LANDING         3.5    3.7    5.6    8.9    9.1    9.9   10.9
  CROOKSTON            8.2    8.2    9.4   10.8   14.7   19.5   23.5
SNAKE RIVER.....
  ABOVE WARREN        62.5   62.5   62.5   63.7   64.6   65.8   66.4
  ALVARADO           100.0  100.0  100.0  101.0  104.0  106.4  107.4
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
  HALLOCK            798.5  798.5  798.5  799.2  803.6  807.0  807.8
ROSEAU RIVER.....
  ROSEAU               7.5    7.5    7.5    9.0   11.3   13.7   18.9


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
  ABERCROMBIE          2.6    2.6    2.6    3.1    7.9   15.6   17.4
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.5    5.6    6.1    6.8    8.8   11.6   12.5
  LISBON               4.6    4.6    4.6    5.7    8.3   11.2   14.5
  KINDRED              6.2    6.2    6.2    6.7   11.5   13.9   18.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   15.0   18.2   20.7
  HARWOOD            872.9  872.9  872.9  873.3  877.3  884.8  888.1
MAPLE RIVER.....
  ENDERLIN             2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    3.9    8.7   10.8
  MAPLETON           895.3  895.3  895.3  895.6  899.3  905.9  908.4
GOOSE RIVER.....
  HILLSBORO            2.5    2.5    2.5    2.7    3.8    7.1    9.7
FOREST RIVER.....
  MINTO                1.8    1.8    2.0    2.6    4.4    6.5    7.3
PARK RIVER.....
  GRAFTON              7.5    7.5    7.7    8.2    9.1   11.3   13.1
PEMBINA RIVER.....
  WALHALLA             3.4    3.4    3.4    3.9    5.2    7.7    9.2
  NECHE                5.8    5.8    5.8    6.3    8.8   14.5   16.7



               ...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK



  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
   THE LONG-RANGE PROBABALISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH HIGH
    AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES.

...CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...

  THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
  PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
  FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

    FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
      WILL RISE ABOVE 1453.2 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
      5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1454.0 FEET.

               FROM MAY 26, 2014 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1453.1 1453.1 1453.2 1453.2 1453.3 1453.4 1454.0
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1453.1 1453.1 1453.2 1453.2 1453.3 1453.4 1454.0


. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...

 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1453.10 FEET
 *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1453.28 FEET

 *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
    FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                ...1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                ...1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                ...1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                ...1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                ...1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                ...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005

 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

           WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP

THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 1949 TO 2012 OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:

.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 63 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2012.


. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF

  THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS"ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
  ...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

A NEW...POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:

   WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP (USE LOWER CASE)

ALSO...7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.

$$

TEAM FGF







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