Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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483 FXUS65 KFGZ 041838 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1138 AM MST Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds will continue to increase, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated showers near the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION...The current forecast package is in good shape with no morning update. It will be breezy today but quite windy on Sunday. We will likely be hoisting a High Wind Warning (gusts over 60 mph) on Sunday roughly for the area between Flagstaff, Meteor Crater and Cameron. Much of the rest of the area will be looking at a Wind Advisory with gust of 40 to 50 mph. Fire weather concerns will be limited due to fairly recent precipitation and elevated relative humidity values. The exception will be the area surrounding St. Johns in east central Arizona where low relative humidity, strong gusty winds and drying grasses will meet the criteria for a Red Flag Warning. && .AVIATION...Saturday 04/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z...Expect generally VFR conditions into Sunday. South-southwest winds gusting 25-35kts will persist overnight and increase Sunday morning with gusts 40-55kts by 18Z Sunday. A few -SHRA possible north of I-40, with areas of MVFR visibilities due to blowing dust developing at KINW-KSJN-KRQE on Sunday. OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions on Sunday with a few -SHRA north of I-40 through Sunday afternoon. Periods of MVFR visibility due to blowing dust are expected at KINW-KSJN-KRQE Sunday afternoon. Strong southwest winds 25-35 kts with gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday afternoon with moderate turbulence. Winds decrease Sunday night into Monday, with winds to 20-30 kts from the west by Monday with widespread VFR conditions returning through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are expected today with increasing southwest winds with gusts 20 to 35 mph. Winds will be much stronger on Sunday, with gusts of 40 to 55 mph by late morning with favored downsloping areas gusting to 65 mph. Minimum RH on Sunday will be 10 to 20% across northeast Arizona which will lead to periods of critical fire weather conditions over NE Arizona Sunday afternoon. Monday through Wednesday...West-southwest winds will remain elevated each afternoon through Wednesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Expect afternoon min RH of 10 to 15%, and overnight RH of 25 to 45%. No precipitation is expected through next week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ004>017-039-040. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff