Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 191942
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The main concerns the next 24 hours will be the heat and the
thunderstorm chances.

First the heat. Warm and very humid air will build through the day
as winds turn more southerly into the afternoon. Dew points early
this morning were in the lower to mid 70s across eastern Nebraska
with that humid air expected to advect north through the morning.
Have added in a few counties to the heat advisory but even those not
in the advisory heat indices will be well into the 90s. A few
locations near the Missouri River will likely reach or eclipse 110
degrees for a couple of hours late this afternoon.

The thunderstorm threat becomes very interesting late this afternoon
and early this evening as a strong right entrance region to the
upper jet moves in just northeast of the area. This sets up a very
favorable profile for potential organized severe weather, especially
a wind threat with dry air aloft across southwest MN. A deep inflow
of southerly winds from about 800mb to the surface will quickly
transition to strong southwest flow around 750mb. Winds aloft in the
500mb to 200mb layer running about 70 to 90 knots which might give a
little extra punch to the potential forward propagation into the
strong inflow. CAPE values around 3000 J/kg will also lead towards
the potential for organized severe storms. Suspect a potential for a
few supercells just north of the area late afternoon and evening,
then a turn to the southeast and becoming more of a linear wind
threat with some potential for westward development into the strong
inflow and enhanced EML. The best chance for severe thunderstorms
should be from about 6 pm to 11 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Appears to be another warm sultry day across the region on Thursday.
Cloud debris across the north may keep things a shade cooler, but
with full sun across the south, the heat advisory is warranted.  May
need to expand the headline northward depending on where the clouds
set up.

A series of short waves look to track through the region Thursday
night into Friday morning. Certainly not as much shear as Tuesday
night, but a decent set up for elevated storms capable of producing
hail with very steep lapse rates from 700-500 mb.

A few more disturbances track through the area on Friday night
creating the outside chance for scattered storms across the area.

The weekend looks to be mainly dry with surface ridge building into
the Northern Plains on Sunday.  With the northerly flow developing
on Sunday, cooler conditions will prevail Sunday into Monday before
warmer more humid conditions develop mid week.  Wednesday appears to
be unsettled, with another set of disturbances tracking through the
region topping the ridge across the Central portion of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR expected through the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms will
be possible after 02Z but timing and coverage will be difficult to
pin down at this time so added VCTS during the most likely time
frame.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-052-057>060-
     063>071.

MN...None.
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001-012-013-
     020>022-031-032.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ031-032.

NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Sally


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