Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 202000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Pesky stratus slowly beginning to dissipate this afternoon, but has
put a damper on temperatures today in many areas.  Relatively quiet
weather continues in the short term portions of the forecast.

Tonight: Following guidance from the RAP/HRRR guidance, will
maintain this stratus deck into the evening hours, especially over
our eastern SD and MN counties. Stratus will finally slide east of
the area once an upper shortwave over eastern ND pushes towards
eastern MN and WI later tonight. With very light winds and clearing
skies, have lowered temperatures towards the MET guidance, with
subfreezing temperature possible.

Friday: Shortwave ridging will move through early Friday morning,
however as mid-level warm advection and an upper jet nose back into
the Northern Plains, increasing mid and upper clouds will be on the
increase through the day.  Temperatures however will warmer than
today, with middle 60s expected in central SD, with the upper 50s
further east towards Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Weak ridge builds into the region Friday night into Saturday morning
resulting in light winds and good radiative conditions.  Southerly
flow gradually builds from west to east throughout the day on
Saturday.  Cold front is expected to move through the region
Saturday night. Winds ahead and behind the front look to be
marginally brisk, keeping temperatures fairly mild Saturday night.
Have raised winds on Sunday much closer to Cons_MOS.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to unfold Monday night through
Wednesday as a series of upper level disturbances move through the
area in southwest flow aloft. With these series of disturbances,
could see showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures remain
relatively mild for this time of year with 925 hpa temps in the
upper single digits and teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Stratus will only gradually dissipate this afternoon, and may even
linger into the evening. While ceilings have gradually risen to
VFR levels, pockets of lower ceilings continue along and west of
the James River.

With stratus gradually diminishing this evening (likely lingering
well into the evening east of I-29), winds will turn light and
variable, with an increase in mid- high level cloud cover by
daybreak Friday. There could be a bit of fog later tonight in
areas that clear, but impact to terminals should be minimal.




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